Friday, September 27, 2013

Top 5 Small Cap Companies To Own For 2014

Investors may still have the urge to get into small cap stocks, because they are leading the market in 2013. While the run to all-time highs by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have dominated the headlines, the small-cap Russell 2000 has them both beat.

Year to date, the Russell 2000 small cap index is up 20.75 percent, compared to 17 percent for the S&P 500 and only 16 percent for the Dow Industrials.

Investors eager to move into small caps at this stage should look at those with improving sales and earnings that are still trading at a reasonable valuation. One choice is specialty diamond and jewelry retailer Zale Corp (NYSE: ZLC). The company achieved earnings growth of 59 percent last quarter and is projected to grow 45 percent in the next year.

Zale Corp reported in the second quarter its highest annual net income in six years. Net earnings were $10 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to a net loss of $27 million, or $0.85 per share, in fiscal year 2012. Zales has continued to increase revenue in recent quarters as its efforts to raise prices, improve core inventory and roll out new branded products appear to have helped lift same-store sales.

Top 5 Small Cap Companies To Own For 2014: Voyager Oil & Gas Inc.(VOG)

Voyager Oil & Gas, Inc. engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States. It primarily focuses on oil shale resource prospects in Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming. As of May 17, 2011, the company controlled approximately 141,500 net acres in the five primary prospect areas comprising 28,000 net acres targeting the Bakken/Three Forks in North Dakota and Montana; 14,200 net acres targeting the Niobrara formation in Colorado and Wyoming; 800 net acres targeting a Red River prospect in Montana; 33,500 net acres in a joint venture targeting the Heath Shale formation in Musselshell, Petroleum, Garfield, and Fergus counties of Montana; and 65,000 net acres in a joint venture in the Tiger Ridge gas field in Blaine, Hill, and Chouteau counties of Montana. It supplies energy and fuel for industrial, commercial, and individual consumers. The company is based in Billings, Montana.

Top 5 Small Cap Companies To Own For 2014: OCZ Technology Group Inc(OCZ)

OCZ Technology Group, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes computer components for computing devices and systems worldwide. It primarily offers solid state drives, flash memory storage, memory modules, thermal management solutions, AC/DC switching power supply units, and computer gaming solutions. The company?s products are used in industrial equipment and computer systems; computer and computer gaming solutions; mission critical servers and high end workstations; personal computer (PC) upgrades to extend the useable life of existing PCs; high performance computing and scientific computing; video and music editing; home theatre PCs and digital home convergence products; and digital photography and digital image manipulation computers. OCZ Technology Group, Inc. offers its products to retailers, on-line retailers, original equipment manufacturers, systems integrators, and distributors. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, Califo rnia.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own Right Now: bebe stores inc.(BEBE)

bebe stores, inc. engages in the design, development, and production of women?s apparel and accessories. Its products include a range of separates, tops, dresses, active wear, and accessories in career, evening, casual, and active lifestyle categories. The company markets its products under the bebe, BEBE SPORT, bbsp, and 2b bebe brand names targeting 21 to 34-year-old woman. As of July 2, 2011, it operated 252 retail stores, and an online store at bebe.com in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Japan, and Canada, as well as 60 international licensee operated stores in south east Asia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CRWE]

    bebe stores, inc. (Nasdaq:BEBE) reported that its Board of Directors declared bebe�� quarterly cash dividend of $0.025 per share. The dividend is payable on December 4, 2012 to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 20, 2012

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Bebe Stores (BEBE) reported a loss of 14 cents a share, more than the 13 cent loss forecast by analysts, and said it would experience a loss in the low- to mid-teens during the current quarter.

Top 5 Small Cap Companies To Own For 2014: Petroquest Energy Inc(PQ)

PetroQuest Energy, Inc. operates as an independent oil and gas company. It engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of oil and gas properties in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas, as well as onshore and in the shallow waters offshore the Gulf Coast Basin. As of December 31, 2009, the company had estimated proved reserves of 1,931 thousand barrels of oil and 167,361 million cubic feet equivalent of natural gas. It owned working interests in 9 net producing oil wells and 277 net producing gas wells. PetroQuest Energy was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Lafayette, Louisiana.

Top 5 Small Cap Companies To Own For 2014: Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc.(ACHN)

Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of treatments for infectious diseases. The company focuses on the development of antivirals for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C; and the development of antibacterials for the treatment of resistant bacterial infections. Its drug candidates for the treatment of chronic HCV include ACH-1625, a protease inhibitor, which is in phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of chronic HCV; ACH-2684, a pangenotypic protease inhibitor, which is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of chronic HCV infection; and NS5A inhibitors for the treatment of chronic HCV infection, including ACH-2928, which is to enter a phase I clinical trial, as well as various additional NS5A inhibitors in preclinical development. Its pipeline of product candidates also includes ACH-702 and ACH-2881 for drug resistant bacterial infections; elvucitabine for HIV infection; and AC H-1095 for HCV infection. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shareholders are a pain to some CEOs. Always asking for profits and returns for their stake in the company.

Some CEOs resent that. They want time -- usually two years -- to show what geniuses they have really been for the last five years despite their seemingly dismal results.

Patience, they plead.

Forbes magazine summed up the attitude well earlier this year when one of its columnists, Keld Jensen, said if he ever became a CEO, he would send out the following letter: "I don't care what the share value will be for the next two years. We might not make a profit during this period. But we are going to focus all our resources on product research and development with the goal to create the best product the world has ever seen. We're here to change the world!" I'm sure Jensen is a very nice person and he probably likes puppy dogs. But if I ever see his name on the masthead of a company I happen to own -- however small my piece -- I am going to sell straight away. As a shareholder, the only world I want a manager to change is mine -- the owner. If a CEO wants to work in an environment where he can do anything he wants and no one will notice for two years, I suggest he get a job running the Department of Energy. Until then, I like companies with CEOs who remember who runs the company and who owns it and how never the twain shall meet. Google (GOOG) is one place with a lot of folks who scorn the 'let's make money for the shareholders' idea. The share price shows it. Same with Wal-Mart (WMT): It used to be on a mission to charge low prices to create high profits. Then, six years ago, someone decided they needed to start squeezing the carbon out of Wal-Mart's supply chain. They also squeezed out profits. At Ocwen Financial (OCN), you won't find any executives talking such silly stuff. The share price shows it, too. So much so, OCN is today the #1 rated stock in my Best Stocks Now app. I have owned and talked about Ocwen many times over the last several years. Ocwen provides residential and commercial mortgage loans servicing as well as asset management services. OCN has been growing its earnings over the last five years by 35% per year.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: Aviva Corporation Ltd(AVA.AX)

Aviva Corporation Limited, a resource development company, develops a pipeline of energy and metal projects in Africa and Australia. The company, through a joint venture with AfriOre International (Barbados) Limited, holds a 51% interest in the West Kenya gold and base metals project that covers an area of approximately 2,788 square kilometers in the prospective Ndori Greenstone belt in Kenya. It also holds interests in two coal-based energy assets, including the Mmamantswe coal project located to the north of Gaborone, Botswana; and the Coolimba power and coal project in the Mid-West region of Western Australia. The company is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: Amalphi AG (AMI)

Amalphi AG is a Germany-based company that offers multivendor services for the maintenance of hardware and software of all kinds of Information Technology (IT) equipment. Its main activity is the sale of services including quality assurance, whereas the physical services are provided via international service providers. The Company's products include amalphi ip and ip-pack. amalphi ip is a maintenance service concept for IT-, office- and other technical equipment based on electronic components, which include hardware and software maintenance, help desk service, patch management and asset management. ip-pack offers service packs for the OEM with Service Level Agreements (SLAs) for Hewlett-Packard and IBM products. The Company has a sales network throughout Germany. ES Investment GmbH holds approximately a 49%-stake in the Company.

Top 10 Penny Stocks To Invest In Right Now: (BAJAJ-AUT.NS)

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and sells scooters, motorcycles, and three wheeler vehicles and spare parts in India and internationally. It sells its two wheeler products under Avenger, Pulsar, Discover, Platina, and Ninja brands. The company also provides three wheeler commercial vehicles, such as goods and passenger carriers. It sells its products and services through a network of two-wheeler and three-wheeler dealers. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Pune, India. Bajaj Auto Limited operates independently of Bajaj Holdings & Investment Limited as of May 28, 2008.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: Grand Canyon Education Inc.(LOPE)

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides postsecondary education services in the United States and Canada. It focuses on offering graduate and undergraduate degree programs in education, healthcare, business, and liberal arts disciplines. The company provides its courses through traditional ground campus in Phoenix, Arizona; online; and onsite at the facilities of employers. As of December 31, 2011, it had 43,917 students enrolled in its courses. The company was formerly known as Significant Education, Inc and changed its name to Grand Canyon Education, Inc. in May 2008. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: TICC Capital Corp.(TICC)

TICC Capital Corp., a business development company, operates as a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. The firm invests in both public and private companies. It invests in secured and unsecured senior debt, subordinated debt, junior subordinated debt, preferred stock, and common stock. The firm primarily invests in debt and/or equity securities of technology-related companies that operate in the computer software, Internet, information technology infrastructure and services, media, telecommunications and telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, hardware, technology-enabled services, semiconductor capital equipment, medical device technology, diversified technology, and networking systems sectors. It concentrates its investments in companies having annual revenues of less than $200 million and a market capitalization or enterprise value of less than $300 million. The firm invests between $5 million and $30 million per transaction. It seeks to exit its investments within 7 years. It serves as the investment adviser to TICC. The company was formerly known as Technology Investment Capital Corp. and changed its name to TICC Capital Corp. in December 2007. TICC Capital Corp. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: SIGA Technologies Inc.(SIGA)

SIGA Technologies, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical solutions for smallpox, Ebola, dengue, Lassa fever, and other dangerous viruses. Its lead product is ST-246, an orally administered antiviral drug that targets orthopoxviruses. The company also has two drug series in the pre-clinical development stage against four serotypes of virus for dengue disease. In addition, it is developing anti-arenavirus drug for hemorrhagic fever arenaviruses and other hemorrhagic fever viruses, including Rift Valley Fever, Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus, and Ebola; and a broad spectrum antiviral candidate against viruses in the Poxviridae, Filoviridae, Bunyaviridae, Arenaviridae, Flaviviridae, Togaviridae, Retroviridae, and Picornaviridae families. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Another under-$10 name pharmaceutical player that's starting to move within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Siga Technologies (SIGA), which discovers, develops, manufactures and commercializes drugs to prevent and treat diseases including smallpox, Ebola, dengue, Lassa fever and other dangerous viruses. This stock is off to a strong start in 2013, with shares up by 35%.

    If you take a look at the chart for SIGA Technologies, you'll notice that this stock has been trending inside of a consolidation pattern for the last two months, with shares moving between $3.16 on the downside and $3.74 on the upside. Shares of SIGA have just started to spike higher above its 50-day moving average at $3.27 a share and it's now moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent range.

    Market players should now look for long-biased trades in SIGA if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $3.70 to $3.74 a share and then once it takes out more resistance at $4 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 263,209 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then SIGA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $4.60 a share. If that level gets taken out with volume, then SIGA could easily tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $5 to $5.90 a share.

    Traders can look to buy SIGA off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 200-day moving average of $3.26 a share, or below more key support at $3.16 a share. One can also buy SIGA off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: Heritage Oaks Bancorp(HEOP)

Heritage Oaks Bancorp operates as the holding company for Heritage Oaks Bank that provides commercial banking services to retail customers, and small to medium-sized businesses in California. The company offers various deposit products, including interest bearing and non-interest bearing demand deposits, checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, NOW accounts, and time deposits. Its loan products comprise commercial and industrial, small business administration, agricultural, credit card, and consumer loans; real estate secured loans for multi-family residential, residential 1 to 4 family, and farmland properties, as well as home equity line of credit and commercial real estate loans; and construction loans for single family residential, tract, multi-family, hospitality, and commercial properties. In addition, the company offers residential mortgage banking, installment note collection, bank-by-mail, night depository, safe deposit boxes, online banking, and other customary banking services, as well as issues cashier?s checks and money orders, and sells travelers checks. It operates 15 branches in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Paso Robles, California.

Best Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd(CCU.AX)

Cobar Consolidated Resources Limited engages in the exploration and development of base and precious metals in Australia. It has 1,371 square kilometers of tenement interests on the western margin of the Cobar basin in western New South Wales. The company primarily focuses on developing the Wonawinta silver project in the Cobar basin in western New South Wales. It also has exploration projects, including the Gundaroo project, the Winduck Super project, the McKinnons gold deposit, and the Goldwing project. The company is based in Melbourne, Australia.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Emerging Stocks Drop as Petrobras Slumps With Commodities

Emerging-market stocks retreated to a one-week low as a decline in commodities sank producers from Petroleo Brasileiro SA to OAO Mechel. Indonesia's rupiah weakened to the lowest level since November 2009.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.6 percent to 1,010.56, the lowest since Sept. 18. Brazil's Petrobras paced losses in energy shares, while Mechel, Russia's biggest producer of coal for steelmakers, sank 2 percent. China's stocks slid, led by the biggest drop in financial companies in two months, on concern the government may encourage more competition among banks and expand property taxes. The rupiah slipped on speculation local companies boosted dollar purchases.

Commodity companies posted the biggest declines among 10 industries in the measure for developing-nation stocks. West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled to the lowest level in eight weeks on speculation that U.S.-Iranian relations are thawing and as the threat of an American military strike on Syria recedes. Gold, copper and silver also retreated.

"It's a cliche, but it's true: the market hates uncertainty," Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $364 billion, said by phone. "Resolution of the Syrian uncertainty, via political discourse or military action would likely be positive for the markets."

The measure for emerging markets has risen 8.7 percent in September, set for the best month since January 2012. The gauge trades at 10.6 times projected earnings, compared with the valuation of 14 for the MSCI World Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Emerging ETF

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange-traded fund slipped 0.8 percent to $41.87. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index, a measure of options prices on the fund and expectations of price swings, slumped 3.2 percent to 22.36.

Investors also watched U.S. economic data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will trim its bond-buying program. Confidence among American consumers fell in September to a four-month low, while home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in the 12 months through July by the most in more than seven years.

Brazil's Ibovespa (IBOV) fell for the third time in four days as commodity producers from Petrobras to Vale SA sank. Wireless carrier Tim Participacoes SA jumped 9.6 percent after Madrid-based Telefonica SA agreed to pay $596 million to boost its stake in the controlling group of parent Telecom Italia SpA.

Russian stocks fell for a third day as crude oil, the nation's chief export earner, retreated. Mechel fell to the lowest level since Sept. 6, while OAO Gazprom (GAZP), the natural-gas export monopoly, retreated 0.9 percent.

Turkey's Lira

The Turkish lira slumped after central bank Governor Erdem Basci said policy makers will only increase interest rates if they see two-year inflation expectations worsening.

The Shanghai Composite Index slid as Ping An Bank Co. (000001) paced losses in lenders. China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048) dropped at least 3 percent as the China Securities Journal reported the government may accelerate a property-tax trial.

India's S&P BSE Sensex added 0.1 percent as Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT) drove a measure of capital goods producers to its first advance in three days. State Bank of India sank after Moody's Investors Service cut its credit rating. The rupee fell for a third day, the longest losing streak in almost a month.

The rupiah dropped 0.4 percent to 11,488 per dollar as of 3:50 p.m. in Jakarta, after reaching 11,586 earlier, the weakest level since April 2, 2009, prices from local banks show.

The premium investors demand to own emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 325 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Fallen Soldiers, Dead Gang Members, Mass Shootings: Who Cares?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I didn't grow up during the Vietnam War. I arrived on Earth shortly thereafter. But I assume, when soldiers came back in body bags, it was a big deal. Imagery from some of my favorite rock-n-roll icons -- Springsteen and Joel, for instance -- and a somewhat close inspection in college suggests Americans considered the human toll headline news.

Or maybe not. We had already fought several "good wars." Maybe, by Vietnam, we became desensitized to seeing men (and women) in uniform go down. That reflection on history is neither here nor there because, as it stands today, news of an American death in Afghanistan or Iraq is effectively an afterthought in print and on television.

Often, when a soldier dies, its not front and center on national news. Usually it appears in some weekly roundup that lists the name, hometown and rank of multiple people lost. If the death comes as part of some larger-scale attack, usually pulled off by a terrorist group, the media sometimes gives it preference. Occasionally, it's even the lead story.

When we invaded Iraq the first time, Afghanistan and Iraq the second time, I watched CBC's (Canadian Broadcasting Company) nightly newscast "The National" almost every evening. I remember remarking to my wife how Canadians made such a "big deal" on the relatively rare occasion they lost somebody in one of these conflicts. Then, on Saturday evening, during Hockey Night in Canada, Don Cherry would make emotional mention of the dead during Coach's Corner, a Canadian pop culture institution. He still does. The phrase "big deal" might sound crass or disrespectful, but it's not. Please don't take it that way. It was the only way I could articulate the difference between the way we react to the war dead in the U.S. and other parts of the world. Dead servicemen and women rank only slightly above dead gang members and other victims of America's epidemic of urban, inner-city mayhem. Here in Los Angeles, the news rarely reports anything at all about the fallen in South LA unless a baby was caught in the crossfire or something else spectacular went down. Even growing up in Buffalo during the 1980s, the media used gang violence like a promotional gimmick, using a homicide count around the holidays to see if "we" could "beat" the previous year's tally. Sick.

Monday morning, at least six people died in a shooting at Washington's Navy Yard. I'll leave details of what happened to the folks whose job it is to cover this stuff. I don't envy them. I prefer being a diversion focused on the relatively meaningless. But I just can't get past the notion that -- after Aurora, after Newtown, after every big, small, random, coordinated mass murder, murder-suicide, whatever -- we've done nothing, as a nation, to truly address the situation.

For example, we still have virtually zero productive discourse on mental health in this nation.

I can't live with myself writing about Apple, but ignoring the stuff that really matters. I'm all right with being a diversion, but not an apathetic fool.

Top Tech Stocks To Watch Right Now

Last week -- after something happened involving a gun somewhere in America -- a Canadian Twitter follower sent me this direct message: My 10 y/o said last night "daddy how come the u.s. let's people have guns and keep talking about war, its good we don't in canada" My daughter turns 10 this year. As such, that hits home more than it would have otherwise. Admittedly, I have no real answers. I'm as helpless as the next guy. But I write because I want to, if at all possible, play a small role in making sure we do not become desensitized to the casualties mass shootings and guns in general trigger like we have so much other loss of life in this country. It's just not OK that other countries not only don't have to deal with this the way we do, but that they live and breath in cultures that couldn't even imagine such sick reality in the first place. Follow @rocco_thestreet --Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.

Rocco Pendola is a columnist and TheStreet's Director of Social Media. Pendola makes frequent appearances on national television networks such as CNN and CNBC as well as TheStreet TV. Whenever possible, Pendola uses hockey, Springsteen or Southern California references in his work. He lives in Santa Monica.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Edge Lower; ConAgra Posts Lower FQ1 Profit

Following the market opening Thursday, the Dow traded down 0.13 percent to 15,656.72 while the NASDAQ declined 0.02 percent to 3,782.72. The S&P also fell, dropping 0.06 percent to 1,724.52.

Top Headline
ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) reported a 42% drop in its fiscal first-quarter earnings.

ConAgra's quarterly profit fell to $144.3 million, or $0.34 per share, from $250.1 million, or $0.61 per share, in the year-ago period. Its earnings from continuing operations came in at $0.33 per share. Excluding one-time items, its earnings declined to $0.37 from $0.44 per share.

Its revenue surged 27% to $4.2 billion, missing analysts' estimates of $4.29 billion.

Equities Trading UP
Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) shot up 12.94 percent to $4.19 after the company posted a profit in its fiscal second quarter.

Shares of GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ: GTAT) got a boost, shooting up 12.52 percent to $8.49. UBS upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.

Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A) was also up, gaining 6.42 percent to $52.49 after the company announced its plans to separate into two public companies.

Equities Trading DOWN
Shares of Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR) were down 10.34 percent to $21.16 after the company reported a 32% drop in its fiscal second-quarter earnings and cut its full-year earnings forecast.

Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) shares tumbled 5.54 percent to $27.48 after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal-weight to Underweight.

Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE: ROYT) down, falling 7.13 percent to $16.70 after the company priced a public offering by Pacific Coast Energy Company LP and other selling unitholders of 13,500,000 trust units at a price of $17.10 per unit.

Commodities
In commodity news, oil traded down 0.48 percent to $107.55, while gold traded up 4.18 percent to $1,362.20.

Silver traded up 7.35 percent Thursday to $23.15, while copper rose 2 percent to $3.34.

Eurozone
European shares were higher today. The Spanish Ibex Index gained 1.07 percent, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index rose 1.24 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX gained 0.77 percent and the French CAC 40 rose 0.67 percent while U.K. shares surged 1.37 percent.

Economics
US jobless claims rose by 15,000 to 309,000 in the week ended September 14. However, economists were expecting claims to rise to 338,000.

US current-account deficit declined around 6% to $98.9 billion in the second quarter.

The Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index rose to -29.40 in the week ended September 15, versus a prior reading of -32.10.

Existing-home sales climbed 1.7% to an annual rate of 5.48 million in August.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index surged to 22.3 in September, versus a reading of 9.3 in August.

The Conference Board's index of leading indicators climbed 0.7% to 96.6 in August.

The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills. The Treasury will also auction 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes.

Data on money supply will be released at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Are We in a Dry-Shippers' Bull Market?

Plagued by overcapacity, dry shipping rates for things such as iron ore, grains, and coal have taken quite a beating the last few years. Stock prices of many shipping companies have likewise plummeted to record lows. Some of them now trade at a fraction of their book values as low rates make it difficult for shippers to turn a profit. However, that grim situation may now be changing for the better.

Huge surge in shipping rates
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the dry-shipped goods' shipping rates by sea, saw a 19% jump last week -- the biggest jump in more than two years. So far this week it's looking like another record -- up another 20% as of September 12 for a 43% rise in just the last two weeks. Demand for iron ore out of China seems to be causing surge, and China's seasonally strongest period for the commodity doesn't even begin until October. Soy and grain exports have been predicted to rise through the end of the year as well, according to US Department of Agriculture. If that proves true, expect shipping rates to keep rising.

How to invest in response to surging shipping rates
All other things being equal, every additional dollar in shipping rates falls directly to a shipper's bottom line. Rising rates can make an enormous impact on shipping companies' financials; just as falling rates hurt them, rising rates can make them go right back up.

DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS  ) is easily the most famous dry shipping compnay, and perhaps one of the least risky ways to invest in shipping. Over 75% of its sales as of last quarter actually come from its drilling business. Analysts already expect the company's 2014 to be well into the black, so any extra rate increases should make a material percentage increase in its bottom line. DryShips currently trades at less than half book value. Before the collapse in 2008, it traded as high as over $100 per share.

Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX  ) is pure investment in dry shipping. The company transports dry bulk cargoes worldwide, including commodities such as iron ore, coal, grain, and other materials. Analysts have yet to respond to the rate increases, but no doubt more of them will be raising their 2014 EPS estimates shortly. Diana Shipping trades around 20% below book value now; back in its heyday, it traded north of $40 per share.

Hot Penny Stocks To Own For 2014

Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM  ) has two operating segments: shipping and logistics. Analysts have already begun to raise their profit estimates for 2014, currently at $0.11 EPS up from $0.01 a week ago. Expect that number to continue to rise dramatically. Navios pays a $0.06 per share quarterly dividend and trades around 40% below its book value. It used to trade as high as $17 back in 2007.

Investors should pay close attention to the Baltic Dry Index which changes once a day, to see whether shipping rates suddenly change. If they continue to climb, it will be a positive game-changer for many shipping stocks' fundamentals. 

Diana Shipping, which is my favorite of the group today, since it tends to be more focused on shipping iron ore than its peers. A return to higher shipping rates could also herald a return to this and other shippers' previous strong financial performance. 

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Tesla Convertible Note Conversion May Affect Stock: StreetInsider

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) were back in the red after flirting with gains earlier in the afternoon. Part of the issue may be remarks made by Elon Musk after hours yesterday.

StreetInsider.com also has an interesting take on the stock today (subscription required):

With Tesla shares looking like they have a weight on them at around the $170 level, investors may look no further than the May 2013 convertible notes offering. Based on the terms of the convertible notes, if the share price holds up then after September 30 the notes may be convertible into approximately 5.3 million shares.

To counteract dilution from the convertible notes, Tesla entered info a convertible note hedge transactions whereby we have the option to purchase up to 5.3 million shares of our common stock at a price of approximately $124.52 per share. The cost of this transaction was offset by an agreement to sell warrants on approximately 5.3 million shares which give holders of the warrants the option to purchase up to approximately 5.3 million shares of our common stock at a price of $184.48 per share.

Some traders have suggested the strange comments from CEO Elon Musk last night, that it’s “not crazy” to short the stock at this level, is some type of manipulation related to the convertible notes conversion.

Short interest has edged up in recent weeks, from 21.6 million shares, from 20.3 million as of mid-August.

But Tesla have also gotten good news this week, with Bloomberg noting that the company's plan to buy back its Model S cars could boost sales, and Dougherty reiterating its $200 price target on the stock.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Bill Gates Owns $650 Million Of This Well-Known Stock -- And He's Buying More

Six hundred fifty million dollars is a lot of money -- even for Bill Gates. 

That's how much his investment firm has invested in what might be considered the best way to play China. It's not a software firm or even a computer hardware firm.

It's mining giant Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT).

Gates started building a position in Caterpillar before the financial crisis, but he became a very aggressive buyer once the crisis hit and shares had fallen by half. Yet remarkably, Gates has kept on buying, even as shares steadily rebounded to previous peaks.

But now that Caterpillar has come under pressure on concerns that China is slowing, is Gates locking in profits? No, he's been buying more, picking up another 500,000 shares in this year's second quarter.

At current prices, his firm's stake of 10.76 million shares is worth a cool $650 million. The key question: Why does Gates continue to buy shares even after China's slowdown has signaled the potential end of a global commodities boom? After all, much of Caterpillar's growth in recent years has come from a strong surge in mining activity that uses the company's massive excavators.

The simple answer is that Gates and his team of investment managers always focus on long-term winners and never buy or sell shares based on short-term economic shifts. We've seen him do it many times before.  

For example, even as Wall Street analysts focused on the near-term prospects for auto retailer AutoNation (NYSE: AN), Gates saw an epic rebound coming, as I noted in this article.

Shares of AutoNation have now risen 400% since early 2009.

Caterpillar: The Long View
The reason why Gates finds Caterpillar so appealing can be pinned down to several factors:

The company sees only a few competitors that are capable of making the massive equipment needed to dig huge holes in the earth. Fewer competitors means firm pricing. In 2012, Caterpillar had 27% gross margins and 18% margins on EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). In contrast, automakers, which operate in a much more competitive industry, rarely exceed 15% gross margins and 10% EBITDA margins. Caterpillar is aggressively accelerating its product development spending. Capital expenditures rose to $3.5 billion last year, handily exceeding the $2.5 billion in average annual spending over the past three years. Rising capital expenditures tend to lead to a stronger competitive hand down the road. Caterpillar's cash flow is so robust that its dividend was hiked at a double-digit pace in 2012 and again in 2013, even as the company is in the midst of a $7.5 billion share buyback program.
     
   
  Flickr/Zachi Evenor  
  Bill Gates likely sees Caterpillar as a company whose best days are yet to come.

 

Meanwhile, a traditional view from Wall Street analysts paints a very different picture. Caterpillar's profits are likely to fall around 30% this year (to around $6.30 a share), and are unlikely to rebound to the peak earnings per share (EPS) of $8.90 a share seen last year until 2015. The company's $65 billion in annual sales last year are also a peak that won't likely be seen again before 2015.

Merrill Lynch, which has a "neutral" rating for the stock, best sums up the Wall Street view: "CAT is very well positioned for the long term, but the slower earnings trajectory that we foresee in coming years due to fading momentum in mining equipment demand and a softer construction equipment outlook will likely limit the stock's multiple expansion potential."

While these analysts see a company being challenged by weak near-term growth prospects in its end markets, it's important to think about this stock in a long-term context. 

For example, Merrill Lynch cites a tepid outlook for construction equipment, yet the U.S. and Europe, which collectively account for half of global economic activity, have had depressed construction markets for half a decade. If anything, the pace of non-residential construction may accelerate in 2014 and 2015 as these lumbering developed economies finally make up for lost time in terms of capital investments, as I noted in August.

And has the China-led supercycle in commodities really come to an end? Perhaps not. The Chinese economy is now showing signs of a tentative rebound. And the leading emerging economies, such as Brazil, Turkey and India, also still have huge investments to make in their infrastructure to support their future growth.

So while Merrill Lynch and other research firms quibble over near-term earnings multiples, Bill Gates likely sees Caterpillar as a company whose best days are yet to come.

Risks to Consider: Caterpillar's shares often trade in sync with sentiment regarding Chinese economic growth, so any fresh concerns about the Chinese economy are likely to pressure shares. 

Action To Take --> Bill Gates has shown little inclination for "timely" investments. Instead, he focuses on companies with robust long-term moats around their business. He uses share price pullbacks on great companies like Caterpillar to deepen his commitment. That's a move he likely learned from his close friend Warren Buffett, and an important example to follow whenever the market chatter gets noisy around a particular company or industry.

P.S. -- In a recent interview with one of the most powerful figures in media, Bill Gates revealed something about his wealth that he doesn't mention in any of his books or speeches. Find out what he said here,and how it could get you on the path to 529% gains immediately.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Will Dell Stage A Recovery?

With shares of Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) trading around $13, is DELL an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Dell is a global information technology company that offers its customers a range of solutions and services delivered directly by Dell and through other distribution channels. The company operates in four segments: Large Enterprise, Public, Small and Medium Business, and Consumer. Dell serves a wide range of customers: global and national corporate businesses; educational institutions, government, health care, and law enforcement agencies; small and medium-sized businesses; and end users. Through its four segments, Dell is able to provide information technology products to a growing user base around the world. As economies continue to develop, look for a company like Dell to provide important technology products for years to come.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

Dell stock has not done so well as rumors that the company may be taken private continue to rise. The stock is currently struggling as it is part of a range extending back to the beginning of the year. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Dell is trading between its key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

DELL

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Dell options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

10 Best High Tech Stocks To Own Right Now

90-Day IV Percentile

Dell Options

33.56%

96%

94%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Steep

Average

August Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Dell’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Dell look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-80.56%

-29.00%

-44.90%

-12.50%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-2.41%

-10.71%

-10.70%

-7.50%

Earnings Reaction

-0.22%

0.21%

-7.32%

-5.34%

Dell has seen decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have not been too happy with Dell’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Dell stock done relative to its peers, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), and sector?

Dell

Hewlett-Packard

Apple

IBM

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

31.31%

76.35%

-20.89%

0.90%

22.46%

Dell has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Dell provides technology products and services to consumers and companies worldwide. The stock has struggled over the years and rumors that the company will be taken private continue to rise. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been declining for the company which has not made investors too happy. Relative to its peers and sector, Dell has been a year-to-date performance leader. WAIT AND SEE what Dell does in coming quarters.

Monday, September 9, 2013

6 Billion Reasons to Watch Sprint

Last week's corporate bond issues topped $30 billion for only the second time since the Fed started taper talk in late May. Here's a summary of a few deals.

Sprint (NYSE: S  ) dialed up investors and raised a total of $6.5 billion with eight- and 10-year notes in a private placement. The coupon rates for the high-yield paper were 7.25% and 7.875%, respectively. That's nearly $500 million per year in debt service that Sprint needs to cover. According to the company's press release, the money will be used "for general corporate purposes, which may include, among other things, redemptions or service requirements of outstanding debt and network expansion and modernization." December 2016 was the earliest maturity I found for any Sprint bond issue, although there may be other debt planned for redemption. Let's hope the uses for the money can clear the big debt service hurdle.

Home Depot (NYSE: HD  ) is doing a little remodeling to its balance sheet with $3.25 billion spread over five-, 10.5-, and 30.5-year tranches with coupon rates ranging from 2.25% to 4.875%. Home Depot's press release says $1.25 billion will be used to redeem some 5.25% paper that matures in December and the other $2 billion will be used for share buybacks over and above previously announced plans. The combination of lower coupon rates and not paying dividends on $2 billion of shares means the debt service costs for the new issues are roughly the same as for the maturing 5.25% paper. No significant change to cash flow and about 2% of outstanding shares taken off the market sounds like a good deal for Home Depot shareholders.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX  ) brewed a grande-size deal with $750 million of 10-year 3.85% notes. The company's press release says the money is going toward "general corporate purposes, which may include business expansion, payment of cash dividends on Starbucks common stock, the repurchase of common stock under the company's ongoing share repurchase program, or financing of possible acquisitions." There are a couple of interesting points in this deal. First, Starbucks only had $550 million in long-term debt, so this deal more than doubles long-term debt. Next, Starbucks has plenty of earnings and cash flow to cover its dividend and a stock repurchase program. The company is expanding, particularly in China, and an acquisition is always a possibility. In short, this looks like a lot of new debt for a company that doesn't really need to borrow.

CME Group (NASDAQ: CME  ) made a market for its own debt, selling $750 million of 5.3% 30-year paper. The money will be used to redeem $750 million of 5.75% paper maturing next February. The refi will save CME a little more than $3 million per year in debt service.

Nabors (NYSE: NBR  ) drilled into the markets for $700 million split between three- and 10-year issues with 2.35% and 5.1% coupon rates, respectively. The driller is putting the money toward funding a tender offer for the company's 2019 9.25% notes. There's $1.125 billion of that paper outstanding and, if I did the math correctly, Nabors will be offering a bit more than a 25% premium to par value for the notes.

Comparing the rates Sprint had to pay to what the other four companies are paying highlights the importance of credit quality to borrowing costs. Sprint is paying a much higher coupon rate on its new eight-year than CME Group or Home Depot are paying on 30-year paper.

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Sunday, September 8, 2013

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: 3D, Hasbro, Dollar Tree, Tyson and More

This will be an interesting week for Wall Street analyst coverage as many traders, investors and analysts are out ahead of Labor Day. Still, we are seeing a surprising number of research calls from analysts now that stocks have pulled back from their recent all-time highs. Some investors want to know if they should sell or avoid certain stocks, while others are looking for stocks to buy.

24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of Wall Street analyst research reports each day to find new ideas for investors. Some picks are growth, some are value, some are stocks to buy and some are stocks to sell. These are Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen from Wall Street.

Citigroup has initiated coverage in the 3D printing market positively on Monday: 3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) was started as Buy with a $60 price target and Stratasys Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS) was started as Buy with a $125 price target.

Deutsche Bank is making a change in its coverage of dollar store themes on Monday: Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) was raised to Buy from Hold and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) was downgraded to Hold from Buy, but the price target was raised to $74 from $70.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) was reiterated as Hold as shares are perceived to be fully valued at Argus.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) was raised to Neutral from Underweight at J.P. Morgan.

Darling International Inc. (NYSE: DAR) was raised to Buy from Hold and the price target was raised to $25 from $22 at Canaccord Genuity.

Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS) was raised to Buy all the way from Sell by Citigroup.

Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) may not be a formal upgrade, but shares are up 3% after Barron’s covered it over the weekend, calling for it to potentially double off of its lows. One analyst was quoted as saying that it could rise to $30 or $35, as business already hit a bottom and is poised to recover.

ResMed Inc. (NYSE: RMD) was raised to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) was downgraded to Neutral rom Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

We saw the analyst quiet period end for American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: AMH) and we have seen some mixed coverage in the name: BofA/Merrill Lynch was at Neutral, Goldman Sachs was at Neutral, Wells Fargo was at Market Perform and J.P. Morgan was at Overweight.

Credit Suisse has identified solid earnings winners that refuse to use smoke and mirrors in their reporting. Also, after seeing the Amgen-Onyx deal, we want readers to revisit superior growth companies via the 10 companies expected to double revenues in the next two to four years.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Buy For 2014

With no compelling reason to be pessimistic today, Wall Street started the week off strong Monday, bidding stocks higher as Europe took further steps to stop the bleeding in Greece. Data today also show an abrupt jump in consumer borrowing, with Americans taking nearly $20 billion worth of debt in May, up sharply from the $10.9 billion more citizens borrowed in April. When all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) tacked on 89 points, or 0.6%, to end at 15,225.�

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  ) led all blue chips higher Monday, adding 2.1%, as the health insurer enjoyed the benefits of a favorable article in Barron's, making the case for a 40% run-up in the stock over the next several years. The staggered rollout of Obamacare is cited as the major catalyst for the stock's potential in the bullish piece, which Wall Street clearly paid attention to. Shares even hit a 52-week high during trading today.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Buy For 2014: International Business Machines Corporation(IBM)

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide. Its Global Technology Services segment provides IT infrastructure and business process services, including strategic outsourcing, process, integrated technology, and maintenance services, as well as technology-based support services. The company?s Global Business Services segment offers consulting and systems integration, and application management services. Its Software segment offers middleware and operating systems software, such as WebSphere software to integrate and manage business processes; information management software for database and enterprise content management, information integration, data warehousing, business analytics and intelligence, performance management, and predictive analytics; Tivoli software for identity management, data security, storage management, and datacenter automation; Lotus software for collaboration, messaging, and so cial networking; rational software to support software development for IT and embedded systems; business intelligence software, which provides querying and forecasting tools; SPSS predictive analytics software to predict outcomes and act on that insight; and operating systems software. Its Systems and Technology segment provides computing and storage solutions, including servers, disk and tape storage systems and software, point-of-sale retail systems, and microelectronics. The company?s Global Financing segment provides lease and loan financing to end users and internal clients; commercial financing to dealers and remarketers of IT products; and remanufacturing and remarketing services. It serves financial services, public, industrial, distribution, communications, and general business sectors. The company was formerly known as Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. and changed its name to International Business Machines Corporation in 1924. IBM was founded in 1910 and is based in Armonk, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul]

    IBM. Emerging markets are a big growth driver for this computer systems and software provider. Not only that, Resendes says, IBM has "a bullet-proof balance sheet that will allow it to weather the current storm and position it for superior growth and profitability in the long term." He thinks the stock, which recently traded at $93, is worth $120 a share: ''There are some obvious companies that offer much bigger discounts, but you have to incorporate the safety factor. You're getting a premium company here that's a good spot to be in within the tech space."

  • [By Victor Mora]

    IBM provides essential information technology products and services to growing companies and consumers around the world. The stock has been on a strong bull run in recent years but is now consolidating slightly below all-time high prices. Earnings have been steadily increasing while revenue figures have decreased over the last four quarters, which has confused investors a bit. Relative to its strong peers and sector, IBM has trailed in year-to-date performance. WAIT AND SEE what IBM does this coming quarter.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Buy For 2014: McDonald's Corporation(MCD)

McDonald?s Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide foodservice retailer. It franchises and operates McDonald?s restaurants that offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 32,478 restaurants in 117 countries, of which 26,216 were operated by franchisees; and 6,262 were operated by the company. McDonald?s Corporation was founded in 1948 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By JON C. OGG]

    McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is at $85.08 and analysts have a consensus price target objective of $97.68.  It carries a 2.9% dividend yield and the stock is down 5% from its 52-week high.  McDonald’s trades at close to 6-times book value, but its return on equity is 37%.  S&P carries an “A” local long-term rating on the Golden Arches.  In the “you gotta eat somewhere” theory, McDonald’s seems to keep winning over and over and its shares and same-store sales keep rising handily.

  • [By Brian Gorban]

     Fast food giant and world-renowned company McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) is undoubtedly a name you’ve heard of, as “the golden arches” are ubiquitous--and with good reason: The company operates over 33,000 restaurants in 119 countries. With over $27 billion in revenue and a market capitalization near $90 billion, McDonald’s is simply a juggernaut and should continue to be a beneficiary of the global growth story happening predominately in the “BRIC” (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries in the years and decades to come.

    Of course, those countries have not been spared the current economic carnage and that has caused the company to miss the past two quarters’ consensus estimates, but that has created a buying opportunity. With the stock trading not far above its $83.31 52-week low, McDonald’s is now yielding an attractive 3.5% dividend yield, and with a low 54% payout ratio, look for the dividend to not only be safe but be raised in the near future. Add in the fact that the company has a comparatively and historically low 16x forward and trailing P/E, and I think MCD should serve investors well for the long-term while one can wait and happily collect the nice 3.5% dividend.

  • [By Dan Moskowitz]

    McDonald�� is one of the strongest brands in the world. For that reason alone, it would be unwise to bet against McDonald��. This doesn�� mean a long position should be initiated. It simply means that shoring the stock would be extremely risky.

Best Insurance Stocks To Buy For 2014: Apple Inc.(AAPL)

Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication and media devices, and portable digital music players, as well as sells related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications worldwide. The company sells its products worldwide through its online stores, retail stores, direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, it sells third-party Mac, iPhone, iPad, and iPod compatible products, including application software, printers, storage devices, speakers, headphones, and other accessories and peripherals through its online and retail stores; and digital content and applications through the iTunes Store. The company sells its products to consumer, small and mid-sized business, education, enterprise, government, and creative markets. As of September 25, 2010, it had 317 retail stores, including 233 stores in the United States and 84 stores internationally. The company, formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc., was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One name that's quickly pushing within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Apple (AAPL), which designs, manufactures and markets personal computers, mobile communication devices, media devices and portable digital music and video players and sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals and networking solutions. This stock has been on fire during the last three months, with shares up sharply by 15.5%.

    If you take a look at the chart for Apple, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last month and change, with shares skyrocketing higher from its low of $386.32 to its recent high of $501.62 a share. During that uptrend, shares of AAPL have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of AAPL within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AAPL if it manages to break out above some key overhead resistance levels at $504.25 to $505.30 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 12.53 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AAPL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $545 to $583 a share.

    Traders can look to buy AAPL off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some near-term support at $490 a share, or just below $480 a share. One could also buy AAPL off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By Geoff Gannon] >Starbucks (SBUX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) can only grow up in very special environments." Can you elaborate on that statement? I don't understand what you mean by "special environments."

    By special environments I meant that the companies grew on a societal wave that allowed them to become so huge. They ended up serving enormous markets. They didn�� really grow these markets purely by force of will. In some cases, like Apple, they contributed a lot to the growth of these markets. But it�� not like they invented these markets. And it�� not like these markets needed these particular companies to grow the market. The markets for oil and coffee would be very big with or without Exxon and Starbucks. Those companies grew to be really big companies in really big markets. So, part of it is their own success story ��that�� true. But equal success in a smaller market would never have led them to become so big. It�� not possible for most companies to achieve that kind of growth, because most companies are limited by the carrying capacity of their market.

    Essentially, a company is limited by a few factors:

    路 Carrying Capacity

    路 Time

    路 Assets

    路 Will

    A business is: a thing that exercises its will over assets through time.

    So, the size of a company is determined by its assets and its ability to exercise its will over those assets. Will is exercised by the company�� agents ��its employees. At some companies, the exercise of will is mostly concentrated in one person. At other companies, the exercise of will is mostly dispersed over thousands of employees.

    The growth of a bank is constrained by its ability to exercise its will over its assets. Unless a branch can be opened with the right people in place, the chance of reliable growth is poor.

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)�� growth was also constrained by its inability to exercise its will. Berkshire tried to establish insurance operations that would grow float very early on! . They had some success buying insurance businesses. They had less success starting insurance operations from scratch. In the early 1980s, Berkshire Hathaway�� insurance operations (at headquarters) were managed by Mike Goldberg. Later this job was given to Ajit Jain.

    When Buffett talks about how valuable Jain is to Berkshire he means that Jain allowed Berkshire to remove a constraint on its growth ��Berkshire�� inability to reliably grow low-coast float. Once Berkshire could do that, it was possible to grow the company much faster than it otherwise would have been. Berkshire would not have achieved the growth it has over the last 25 years if it had to rely on it insurance operations as of 1985 as the engine of that growth.

    Berkshire�� reinsurance business is much better than it was 25 years ago. And this is mostly just a matter of human capital at the very top. Berkshire was always capable of buying good, little insurance businesses in specific niches. Returns in insurance were not the problem. Growth was the problem. The insurance businesses that were easiest to grow were not the best underwriters, and the best underwriters were not very easy to grow.

    That�� one example of growth being constrained by an inability to exercise the company�� will. Buffett always knew what he wanted the reinsurance business to become. He just couldn�� make it happen until he had the right person in the job.

    This is also true outside of insurance.

    It is critical for Berkshire Hathaway to purchase businesses with management in place so the exercise of will can be maintained. By doing this, Berkshire Hathaway ensures that all capital allocation decisions above the company level are centralized in Warren Buffett. And all capital decisions at the company level and below are kept away from Warren Buffett. If this separation failed, Warren Buffett�� attention would be overloaded and the ability of the company to exercise its will over its assets would be impaired.

    Time! combines! with assets to create growth. Companies grow their assets over time. This is frequently achieved through the company�� return on assets. If a company has $100 in assets and earns 8% on those assets it will have $108 in assets if it does not disburse any of this assets.

    Now, it�� true that a company can grow or shrink through increasing or decreasing its leverage ��taking on or taking off liabilities ��rather than through asset growth achieved through retained earnings. However, such changes have larger short-term impact than long-term impact because the amount of future leveraging or deleveraging is always limited by the present leverage ratio of the business (if you are a non-financial company leveraged 3 to 1 you can�� triple your leverage again and if you are a non-financial leveraged 1 to 1 you can�� cut your leverage by half again). This is only one part of the growth through leverage problem.

    The other problem is a reliability issue. If we are talking about making a business very, very big ��we are sometimes going to be talking about companies that constantly use a reasonable amount of leverage. But we will rarely be talking about companies that use an abnormally high amount of leverage. In general, extremely high leverage ratios and extremely fast growth rates so strongly increase the risk of requiring a company to slam on the brakes at some point in its history that when you look back over 20, 30 or 40 years you often find that it was not the company that maximized the rate of growth and amount of leverage in each period that ended up becoming the biggest company. It is often a company that grows at the high end of the reasonable range year after year that ends up being one of the biggest companies in its industry.

    So, the long-term growth of any business is going to be dependent on its return on assets. Asset growth is positively correlated with past profitability and negatively correlated with future profitability. In other words, companies tend to increa! se assets! after they have recently earned a high return on assets. And companies tend to earn a low return on assets after they have had high asset growth. There is a bit of momentum here. So, I do not mean that companies immediately start seeing lower ROAs after increasing asset growth. Rather, high ROAs and asset growth go hand in hand for a short burst of prosperity in which the company does not yet realize the mistake it has made ��and then this is followed by paying for the mistake with lower ROAs in subsequent years.

    There is one exception to this rule. Retaining earnings and leaving them in cash doesn�� have much of a relationship with future profitability ��this may be because companies retain earnings in cash form only when they and their competitors have little opportunity to grow the business. It may also be that certain management types are more likely to retain cash even while earning high ROAs and that such managers are less likely to allow their business to earn lower ROAs in the future. Basically, managers who retain cash are not short-term greedy. And short-term greedy companies are the companies most likely to have the lowest long-term return on assets.

    Putting aside cash, the general rule of business growth is this: Businesses grow their assets through their return on assets and businesses earn lower returns on assets after growing their assets.

    If you look at a company like Apple (AAPL), it has recently had a lot of asset growth resulting from very high returns on assets. This is generally followed by lower returns on assets. It doesn�� have to be. But if a company attempts to keep growing assets along with their very high return on assets ��in essence, if they don�� hoard cash, buyback shares, pay dividends, etc. ��they will usually experience a reduction in both their return on assets and their growth rate.

    This is the efficiency versus reliability argument. Efficiency means earning the highest return on your assets right now. And having the faste! st growth! velocity at this instant in time.

    Reliability means achieving the highest average return on assets and the highest average speed over time.

    So, a company that grows to be very, very big tends to be a company that can achieve a high average return on assets and grow those assets at a high average speed over a long period of time.

    Many companies fit this description. They have the competitive advantages needed to reliably earn very high ROAs even while having very high asset growth. In fact, a great many small companies around the world fit this description.

    Will they all become big companies?

    No. Most of them will not. And it is no fault of the management. It is no lack of a moat ��some small companies have much wider moats than multibillion dollar businesses.

    Remember, in the 1980s, Berkshire Hathaway had the best collection of businesses it would ever own in terms of returns on tangible assets. The group earned a better than 50% return on tangible invested assets. Berkshire�� current collection of businesses can�� approach that level of return on assets. Why?

    Two reasons. One, they tend to be more asset-heavy businesses now. They use leverage. So, ROEs can still be comparable. Although in this case, we know they aren��. BNSF is no See��. Two, they tend not to have as wide moats as the businesses Berkshire bought in the 1980s. The Nebraska Furniture Mart had a very wide moat. See�� had a very wide moat.

    If Nebraska Furniture Mart and See�� had some of the widest moats on planet earth ��why aren�� they Fortune 500 companies?

    There are two possible reasons. I think there is truth in both explanations. Explanation No. 1 is that the companies simply did not aggressively pursue growth. Management was timid expanding into new markets.

    Explanation No. 2 is more complicated. And more about the environment a company grows up in.

    Imagine there is a mystical place with only two predators. There are wolves and cougars.! There is! very little cover in this area. It is very flat. And the length of the days is extremely long.

    Whatever prey is out there is going to see a predator coming from very far away. And whenever a predator kills something it is going to be quite obvious where that kill is.

    So the three things the ideal predator should have in this environment are:

    1. Ability to take down prey even after prey has been alerted to the predator�� presence

    2. Ability to defend a kill

    3. Ability to steal a kill

    I would not want to be a cougar in that place. I would much rather be a wolf.

    But does that mean that wolves will be plentiful in this environment?

    No. All we have done is looked at competition between predators. We haven�� looked at the availability of prey.

    The ideal industry is one with abundant ��rey��and a prey population that grows faster than the predator population.

    Technology companies excite people because of the possibility that there will be a giant and growing prey population. Very often technology is just another ��much better ��way to serve an existing need people have. So, it�� obvious once the TV is introduced that there are a lot of people out there who want one. We know people love radios, we know they watch plays, we know they read novels, we know they rush out to the movies, we know they read newspapers. Now they can have all those sorts of things delivered in a slightly different form directly into their living room. So we knew right away that the TV market was going to be huge.

    The problem is that in the TV set manufacturing business more wolves and cougars could enter the market as quickly as the deer at home in their living rooms could repopulate. And so you had abundant prey. But you also had abundant predators. And the predators had a really hard time specializing on one kind of prey. The key to catching prey was sadly similar however you tried to divide the market ��the predator with the lowest price got! the kill! . So you had all these companies competing for the same sorts of customers using the same attribute ��low price.

    This is far from the ideal situation where we have different predators competing ��using different attributes ��on specific groups within an abundant population of possible prey. Some will ambush. Others will outlast. In this way, we have an environment that can support predator growth for years and years to come.

    I talked about Apple and Exxon Mobil and Starbucks growing up in very special environments.

    Let�� start with Starbucks (SBUX). I talked about coffee before. It is not easy to dominate the coffee business remotely. You need to dominate it locally ��close to the consumer. This is different from the wine business, the cola business, etc. However, coffee is still a huge market like wine and cola. Starbucks is to coffee what Coke and Pepsi are to cola in the U.S.

    The carrying capacity for local coffee shops is huge. Starbucks did not have to worry about prey availability. It just had to figure out a strategy for taking out the other predators. And then it had to repeat that strategy across the country. That�� what Starbucks did. Starbucks is not a better competitor than some much smaller companies. I enjoy their coffee. I enjoy their stores. But I think there are better retailers out there. Those retailers just don�� sell coffee. I think coffee is among the best products a retailer could sell if a retailer wanted to get very, very big very, very fast.

    So, the special environment Starbucks grew up in is one with abundant prey and abundant predators. The prey were all similar. The predators were all different from Starbucks. So Starbucks entered an environment as a differentiated predator with an endless supply of prey. You can grow very big that way.

    Exxon Mobil is a strange example. Exxon Mobil is just a rump Standard Oil. There�� no point discussing Exxon apart from Standard Oil. I recommend reading Ron Chernow�� Titan: The Li! fe of Joh! n D. Rockefeller to understand how Standard Oil got that big.

    American Telephone and Telegraph is an even more obvious situation. Basically, if you know the Microsoft growth story you know the AT&T story. Microsoft was just a replay of AT&T a century later.

    It�� also important to note how unimportant both patents and quality were in each case. Neither Microsoft nor AT&T could really claim to have better products except insofar as their products were quickly available and universally adopted. And AT&T lost its phone patent in the 1890s. It didn�� matter. The road to dominance for AT&T took about 15-20 years (no more).

    Once you have one AT&T there is no need for another. A standard is a competitive advantage that vanishes after use. Once a standard is established, the environment is changed. And it is not realistic to think you could duplicate the history of Microsoft or AT&T in the same industry. You can do the same thing in other industries that don�� yet have a standard. But to get big in the way AT&T and Microsoft got big, you have to grow in an environment without an established standard.

    One difference between AT&T and Microsoft is that while both became big businesses only Microsoft became a great business. AT&T was a highly mediocre investment for a very, very long time before it was broken up.

    This reminds us that bigger isn�� always better. And that competitive dominance may be a necessary condition for a great business ��but it is not a sufficient condition. There are some businesses with very high market share and unremarkable returns on assets.

    But the question here is growth ��not greatness.

    Unless you sell a product that millions of people can use ��you aren�� going to grow to be the size of any of these companies. That doesn�� mean you don�� have a wide moat. And it doesn�� mean you will do worse for your shareholders over time.

    A lot of small companies made their shareholders much richer than AT&T�� shareh! olders ev! en though they did not grow as fast as AT&T or achieve that company�� size.

    As an example, here is a list of the best performing stocks from 1972 to 2002:

    路 Southwest (LUV)

    路 Wal-Mart (WMT)

    路 Walgreen (WAG)

    路 Intel (INTC)

    路 Comcast (CMCSA)

    Those are big companies. But, with the exception of Wal-Mart, those aren�� the biggest companies in the United States.

    It does tell you something though. All of those businesses weren�� just strong competitors. A key element in every case was that they were in markets with a huge carrying capacity. The volume of plane flights is huge. The volume of ��eneral retail��is huge. Intel is the only company on that list that isn�� consumer facing. But even then consumer demand for its customers��products was huge.

    So the biggest companies in the world can�� just be dominant in their industry. In fact, they don�� even have to dominate their industry. But they do have to serve a really, really big market.

    If you grow up in a market environment that can never support a company of that size ��you��l simply never get to be one of the biggest companies in America.

    That doesn�� mean you can�� be a good investment.

    But really big companies can only grow up in market environments that can support them.

    So it has to be a market with an almost endless supply of customers.

    Read Geoff�� Other Articles
  • [By Jim Jubak]

     Not all my picks for 2013 are riding trends. Some, including Apple (AAPL), make their own trends. If Apple's remarkable and maddening stock performance in 2012 demonstrated anything, it was that this stock dances to its own music. Apple shares are capable of climbing when everything else is tumbling and of plunging while the rest of the market is slowly moving ahead.

    The stock ended 2012 in deep retreat as sentiment, rather than fundamentals, turned against it. (And sentiment on this baby can quickly go into reverse.) Apple fell from $589 on Nov. 11 to $509 on Dec. 14 -- and that's after a plunge from $702 on Sept. 19 to $526 on Nov. 15.

    Investors sold Apple at the end of 2012 on downgrades from Wall Street analysts that cited order reductions to Apple suppliers. But curiously, sellers seem not to have read all the way through these opinions. For example, the analyst at Canaccord Genuity who cut his target price to $750 from $800 (while maintaining a buy rating) wrote that reduced orders to iPhone suppliers could be a result of softer-than-expected sales in international markets or Apple's intention to launch a new iPhone model in June. Other technology analysts,most notably Horace Dediu on Asymco, have argued that Apple is moving to a six-month cycle from a new-model-every-year cycle. This would be a huge change, and I find the argument convincing.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Buy For 2014: Visa Inc.(V)

Visa Inc., a payments technology company, engages in the operation of retail electronic payments network worldwide. It facilitates commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses, and government entities. The company owns and operates VisaNet, a global processing platform that provides transaction processing services. It also offers a range of payments platforms, which enable credit, charge, deferred debit, debit, and prepaid payments, as well as cash access for consumers, businesses, and government entities. The company provides its payment platforms under the Visa, Visa Electron, PLUS, and Interlink brand names. In addition, it offers value-added services, including risk management, issuer processing, loyalty, dispute management, value-added information, and CyberSource-branded services. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Victor Mora]

    Visa facilitates transactions for consumers, companies, governments, and other entities around the world. The company recently reported earnings that have sat really well with investors. The stock has been steadily trending higher and is now trading near all-time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been increasing which has really pleased investors. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Visa has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Visa to OUTPERFORM.

  • [By Victor Mora]

    Visa strives to help consumers, companies, governments, and other entities by providing methods of easy transaction worldwide. The company recently reported earnings that made investors happy, and the stock is now trading near all-time high prices, with still more room to rise. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been increasing, which has pleased investors in the company. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Visa has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Visa to continue to OUTPERFORM.

  • [By Charles Sizemore]

    One of the “big picture” economic themes that I expect to play out over 2011 and beyond is the secular shift to a global cashless society.?Though the process is well on its way in the U.S. and Europe, roughly 40% of all transactions are still made with cash and paper checks according to Barron’s.

    This means that even in “boring” developed markets, there is ample room for growth in electronic payments. And there is no better company to benefit from this trend than credit card giant Visa (NYSE: V).

  • [By Ed Carson]

    The holiday season was hit or miss for many retailers, but indicators are that consumers were using plastic. Visa shares have risen steadily for the past seven months, with a strong 6% gain so far in 2013. Even in America, consumers continue to shift more from cash and checks to credit and debit cards. Overseas, consumers are adopting plastic, while some are bypassing cards and going straight to mobile payments. Visa wants to make sure it's part of that mobile solution.

    Visa earnings growth has decelerated for the past two quarters from 30% to 24% to 21%. Revenue growth in the latest quarter picked up to 15%, matching the best gains of the past two years.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Buy For 2014: Colgate-Palmolive Company(CL)

Colgate-Palmolive Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets consumer products worldwide. It offers oral care products, including toothpaste, toothbrushes, and mouth rinses, as well as dental floss and pharmaceutical products for dentists and other oral health professionals; personal care products, such as liquid hand soap, shower gels, bar soaps, deodorants, antiperspirants, shampoos, and conditioners; and home care products comprising laundry and dishwashing detergents, fabric conditioners, household cleaners, bleaches, dishwashing liquids, and oil soaps. The company offers its oral, personal, and home care products under the Colgate Total, Colgate Max Fresh, Colgate 360 Advisors' Opinion:

  • [By ChuckCarlson]

    Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets consumer products worldwide. The company has raised distributions for 48 years in a row. The 10 year annual dividend growth rate is 12.40%/year. The last dividend increase was 9.40% to 58 cents/share. Analysts are expecting that Colgate Palmolive will earn $5.52/share in 2012. I expect that the quarterly dividend will be raised to 64 cents/share in 2012. Yield: 2.60%

Friday, September 6, 2013

Best Dividend Companies For 2014

American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP  ) reported earnings last week, the first of the big utilities (read "dividend stocks") to run its Q2 numbers. While AEP missed slightly on both top- and bottom=line expectations, there's more to this dividend stock's story that you need to know. Let's take a look.

Number crunching
For Q2 2013, American Electric reported revenue of $3.58 billion, just shy of analysts' $3.64 billion estimate. Sales have remained relatively steady over the past couple of years, despite a more erratic bottom line.

AEP Revenue Quarterly YoY Growth data by YCharts

For this quarter, adjusted EPS clocked in at $0.73, underwhelming analyst expectations by a penny. Neither top-line nor bottom-line metrics were much off the mark, and Mr. Market seems to have thought better of its day-of stock-price punishment. By Friday afternoon, shares were back up beyond its July 25 earnings report price.

Best Dividend Companies For 2014: The Cushing MLP Total Return Fund(SRV)

Cushing MLP Total Return Fund is a closed-end mutual fund launched by Swank Capital, LLC. The fund is managed by Swank Energy Income Advisors L.P. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe with a focus in United States. The fund typically invests in MLPs, Other Natural Resource Companies, and global commodities. It primarily invests in the securities of MLPs, other equity securities, debt securities, and securities of non-U.S. issuers employing a fundamental analysis. Cushing MLP Total Return Fund was formed on May 23, 2007 and is domiciled in Dallas.

Best Dividend Companies For 2014: Engineer Inform(ENG.MI)

Engineering Ingegneria Informatica SpA, together with its subsidiaries, provides various information technology services in Italy and internationally. It offers system integration and consultancy, software solutions, and business process and information technology outsourcing services. The company provides its solutions to the public administration, finance, industry and services, telecommunications, utilities, healthcare, transport, energy, and media sectors. Engineering Ingegneria Informatica SpA was founded in 1980 and is based in Rome, Italy.

Top Dividend Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Williams Creek Explorations Lim(WCX.V)

Williams Creek Gold Limited engages in the exploration of precious and base mineral properties with a primary focus on exploring gold prospects in Canada. The company holds interests in the Westport project that includes 28 crown granted mineral claims; and the Pine properties, which comprise 4 crown granted mineral claims located in the Cariboo Mining Division, British Columbia. It also owns a 100% interest in three crown granted mineral claims in the Kamloops Mining Division, British Columbia; and a net 30% interest in the ATW diamond property in the MacKenzie Mining District of the Northwest Territories. The company was formerly known as Williams Creek Explorations Limited and changed its name to Williams Creek Gold Limited on June 14, 2011. Williams Creek Gold Limited was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Is Ford Losing Ground to Imports?

Ford's Fusion has made big inroads against import brands, but now the imports appear to be fighting back. Photo credit: Ford Motor.

Ford (NYSE: F  ) has made nice gains in the U.S. market (and elsewhere) as its much-improved product line has rolled out over the last few years. This year has been no exception: Ford's Fusion sedan has made big inroads into the market share of Toyota's (NYSE: TM  ) Camry -- so much so that Ford has added a second assembly line for the Fusion to meet strong demand.

But even as Ford has been posting gains, exchange-rate shifts have given Japan's automakers an advantage -- and some analysts are predicting that Honda (NYSE: HMC  ) and Nissan (NASDAQOTH: NSANY  ) will post big sales gains for August, while Ford falls behind. In this video, Fool contributor John Rosevear looks at the latest estimates -- and offers his view on how Ford is likely to respond.

Ford's success so far has nicely rewarded its investors. But for Ford's stock to really soar, a few more critical things need to fall into place. In The Motley Fool's special free report entitled, "5 Secrets to Ford's Future," we outline the key factors every Ford investor needs to watch. Just click here now for your free report.

5 Best Medical Stocks To Invest In Right Now

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Yet Another Failure Has Rigel Pharmaceuticals Almost Back To Square One

Top Stocks To Invest In 2014

The news from long-suffering biotech Rigel Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:RIGL) just continues to get worse. Rigel has already seen AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) return the rights to R788, its Syk kinase inhibitor for rheumatoid arthritis, and with Monday's announcement of the failure of R343 in allergic asthma, it's worth asking whether there's any real value left in the company's Syk inhibitor program. Although the company still has a couple of clinical trials ongoing, as well as $250 million in cash, these shares are looking more and more like a spin of the roulette wheel than any sort of real investment opportunity.

Another Syk Failure
Seeing as Rigel's market cap was less than $320 million on Friday, it's difficult to say that the Street had robust expectations for Rigel's Phase II allergic asthma drug R343. While allergic asthma (of varying degrees of severity) affects an estimated 10 million people in the U.S., it's a moot point now as the drug failed to meet both primary and secondary endpoints, leading management to terminate the program.

SEE: Will Immunotheraphy Disrupt The Oncology Market?

What's Next?
With R343 off the table, attention now shifts to R333, a topical JAK3/Syk inhibitor in a Phase II trial for the treatment of discoid lupus. Discoid lupus is a chronic skin condition that causes inflammation, sores, and scarring of the skin – particularly on the face, ears, and scalp. The musician Seal suffered from this condition earlier in his life, and while it appears to be in remission now it caused significant facial scarring and hair loss.

The market potential of an effective treatment for discoid lupus is likely worthwhile, as there are more than 50,000 people in the U.S. estimated to have this condition. That potential may be moot, though, as the company's failures thus far in developing effective Syk inhibitors raises the question of whether they really have a firm understanding of the relevant mechanism(s) of action and the resulting ability to design effective drugs.

Rigel also has R348 in clinical development as a treatment for dry eye. Given how difficult this condition is to treat, Allergan's (NYSE:AGN) Restasis is the only approved drug specifically targeting this indication, R348 has to be considered a long-shot at best.

Still Awaiting Word On R788
Rigel has yet to make a final determination of its plans for R788 (aka fostamatinib), the oral Syk kinse inhibitor it has explored for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. After a largely disappointing clinical development history, AstraZeneca opted to return this drug to Rigel and walk away from the partnership.

Although R788 has shown some signs of efficacy, and could theoretically have a role in patients who fail DMARD therapy, I think you have to consider AstraZeneca's own desperation for growth when evaluating the potential of R788 – if there were any serious, credible market opportunity for R788, I highly doubt AstraZeneca would have abandoned it. That said, Rigel could still elect to try to submit an NDA, at which point the company would still need to find a marketing partner for a drug whose clinical data package suggests that a major marketing effort would be needed to generate meaningful sales.

The Bottom Line
Rigel shares are trading at about 15% to 20% above cash value per share, and I think that's a fair price considering the circumstances. The company has yet to demonstrate that it has a commercially viable product candidate in its pipeline, and pursuing a Phase III study for either discoid lupus or dry eye could well consume half (or more) of the current cash balance. Given the paucity of data on either of those drugs, buying Rigel today is basically just a nearly blind bet on one or both of those Phase II trials delivering positive data. That's gambling, not investing, and I don't see a compelling reason to bother with Rigel shares today.

Disclosure – At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.