Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014

For ten years, all you had to do to make money in emerging markets was throw money at them. From 2001 through 2010, the MSCI Emerging Markets index returned an eye-popping 16.2% annualized.

Don't expect a repeat of that kind of performance anytime soon. Indeed, since the start of 2011, the index has lost 4.2% annualized. And that includes a 7.8% loss so far this year (all returns are through July 30).

See Also: Look Overseas for Cheap Stocks

What should emerging-markets investors do now? Ruchir Sharma, head of the emerging-markets stock team at Morgan Stanley, says the secret is to choose the best markets. "In the developed world, the key is to pick the right industry sectors," he says. "In emerging markets, it's picking the best countries." Sharma wrote "Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles", a provocative book on emerging markets.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: DRDGOLD Limited(DROOY)

DRDGOLD Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, processing, and smelting of gold in South Africa. It holds interests in the Blyvoor mine; and the Crown gold surface tailings retreatment facility that reprocesses sand and slimes dumps, as well as involves in the surface retreatment operations. The company was incorporated in 1895 and is based in Roodepoort, South Africa.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: Global Payments Inc.(GPN)

Global Payments Inc. provides electronic transaction processing services for merchants, independent sales organizations (ISO), financial institutions, government agencies, and multi-national corporations located in the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a comprehensive line of processing solutions for credit and debit cards; business-to-business purchasing cards; gift cards; and electronic check conversion and check guarantee, verification, and recovery, including electronic check services, as well as terminal management. The company also offers proprietary software products to establish revolving check cashing limits for the casinos? customers in the gaming industry. In addition, it sells, installs, and services automated teller machine and point of sale terminals; and provides card issuing services, including card management and card personalization. The company markets its products directly, as well as through ISOs, retail outlets, tra de associations, alliance bank relationships, and financial institutions. Global Payments Inc. has a joint venture with La Caixa Group to provide merchant acquiring services to merchants in Spain. Global Payments Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Monica Gerson]

  Global Payments (NYSE: GPN) reported upbeat fiscal first-quarter results and raised its annual forecast. Global Payments named Jeffrey S. Sloan as its new chief executive and announced its plans to buy back up to $100 million of its common stock. Global Payments shares surged 6.80% to $54.15 in the after-hours trading session.

• [By Monica Gerson]

  Global Payments (NYSE: GPN) is expected to post its Q1 earnings at $0.95 per share on revenue of $623.79 million.

  Synergetics USA (NASDAQ: SURG) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $0.06 per share on revenue of $17.01 million.

• [By Ben Levisohn]

  Global Payments�(GPN) has gained 6.8% to $54.12 in pre-open trading after the payment processing company reported a profit of $1 a share, beating analyst forecasts of 95 cents. It also said it would buy back stock.

Best Small Cap Companies To Watch For 2014: S&P GSCI(GD)

General Dynamics Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides business aviation; combat vehicles, weapons systems, and munitions; military and commercial shipbuilding; and communications and information technology products and services worldwide. Its Aerospace group designs, manufactures, and outfits various large and mid-cabin business-jet aircraft; provides maintenance, repair work, fixed-based operations, and aircraft management services; and performs aircraft completions for aircraft. The company?s Combat Systems group offers tracked and wheeled military vehicles, weapons systems, and munitions. Its product lines include wheeled combat and tactical vehicles; battle tanks and infantry vehicles; munitions and propellant; rockets and gun systems; and axle and drivetrain components and aftermarket parts. This group also manufactures and supplies engineered axles, suspensions, and brakes for heavy-load vehicles for military and commercial customers. The company Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Katie Spence]

  Who builds what
  Both General Dynamics' (NYSE: GD  ) Bath Iron Works shipbuilding company and Huntington Ingalls Industries' (NYSE: HII  ) Ingalls Shipbuilding build the DDG 51 Aegis Destroyer, with the Navy typically buying ships from each builder.

• [By Rich Smith]

  The Department of Defense awarded a round dozen defense contracts Friday, worth just under $7.2 billion in aggregate. The bulk of the contracts -- $7 billion worth -- were split among eight small privately held firms scattered around New Jersey, Maryland, Indiana, and Virginia contracted to supply software and systems engineering services in support of the Army's Software Engineering Center. But a handful of better-known -- and, more importantly to investors, publicly traded -- companies won contracts as well. Namely:

• [By Rich Smith]

  Huh? What?
  I know. That hardly seems to make sense, does it? Oshkosh simply crushed analyst earnings estimates for the quarter, delivering $0.97 per share in profit where only $0.86 were forecast. It added a dime to its full-year forecast as well, predicting that earnings could rise as high as $3.15 by year-end. First-half operating profit margins, at 5.8%, still fall far short of rival armored-vehicle makers Textron (NYSE: TXT  ) and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD  ) . But Oshkosh is now neck-and-neck with heavy-equipment maker Terex (NYSE: TEX  ) , and is simply smoking unprofitable rival MRAP maker Navistar (NYSE: NAV  ) .

• [By Rich Smith]

  America's generals want a new tank, and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD  ) would love to build it for them.

  On Wednesday, the armored-vehicle specialist announced that its General Dynamics Land Systems subsidiary, or GDLS, is "leading an effort to develop the first North American combat vehicle with a fully integrated Active Protection System," or APS.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc.(FCX)

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. engages in the exploration, mining, and production of mineral resources. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and cobalt. It holds interests in various properties, located in North and South America; the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; and the Tenke Fungurume minerals district in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As of December 31, 2010, the company?s consolidated recoverable proven and probable reserves totaled 120.5 billion pounds of copper, 35.5 million ounces of gold, 3.39 billion pounds of molybdenum, 325.0 million ounces of silver, and 0.75 billion pounds of cobalt. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Matt DiLallo]

  Goldcorp isn't alone in cutting its capital budget amid falling metal prices. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX  ) , for example, is slashing $1.9 billion from its capital budget over the next two years so that it can maintain balance sheet flexibility in light of falling copper and gold prices. It's the same story at Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK  ) , which is also reducing its capital expenditures over the next two years. Teck is cutting $150 million out of its original $2 billion capex budget. Meanwhile, the company is targeting to keep its sustaining capex to $500 million next year. These moves are to better align these companies with current market conditions, as well as to improve cash flow and strengthen balance sheets.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: CVS Corporation(CVS)

CVS Caremark Corporation operates as a pharmacy services company in the United States. The company?s Pharmacy Services segment provides a range of pharmacy benefit management services, including mail order pharmacy services, specialty pharmacy services, plan design and administration, formulary management, and claims processing; and drug benefits to eligible beneficiaries under the Federal Government?s Medicare Part D program. This segment primarily serves employers, insurance companies, unions, government employee groups, managed care organizations and other sponsors of health benefit plans, and individuals. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 44 retail specialty pharmacy stores, 18 specialty mail order pharmacies, and 4 mail service pharmacies located in 25 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. This segment operates business under the CVS Caremark Pharmacy Services, Caremark, CVS Caremark, CarePlus CVS/pharmacy, CarePlus, RxAmerica, Accordant, and TheraCom names. The company?s Retail Pharmacy segment sells prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, seasonal merchandise, greeting cards, and convenience foods through its pharmacy retail stores and online, as well as offers film and photo finishing, and health care services. This segment operated 7,182 retail drugstores located in 41 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia; and 560 retail health care clinics in 26 states and the District of Columbia under the MinuteClinic name. It has a strategic alliance with Alere, L.L.C. for the management of disease management program offerings that cover chronic diseases, such as asthma, diabetes, congestive heart failure, and coronary artery disease. CVS Caremark Corporation was founded in 1892 and is based in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  Preliminary results show decent success with Walgreen's strategy. During April, same-store sales rose 1.2%, with larger gains of 4.7% in pharmacy sales pointing to customers returning to Walgreen's fold. May's increase in comps of 2.8% showed the same tilt toward the pharmacy side of the business. Yet, rival CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS  ) has also given investors some positive news, guiding earnings and revenue last month to the upper end of previously provided ranges amid favorable impacts of greater generic-drug availability. Despite Walgreen's success, CVS remains a strong competitive threat, especially with its combination of pharmacy benefits management and retail drug stores.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: The Travelers Companies Inc.(TRV)

The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals primarily in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Business Insurance; Financial, Professional, and International Insurance; and Personal Insurance. The Business Insurance segment offers property and casualty products and services, such as commercial multi-peril, property, general liability, commercial auto, and workers? compensation insurance. It operates in six groups: Select Accounts, which serves small businesses; Commercial Accounts that serves mid-sized businesses; National Accounts, which serves large companies; Industry-Focused Underwriting that serves targeted industries; Target Risk Underwriting, which serves commercial businesses requiring specialized product underwriting, claims handling, and risk management services; and Special ized Distribution that offers products to customers through licensed wholesale, general, and program agents. The Financial, Professional, and International Insurance segment provides surety and financial liability coverage, which uses a credit-based underwriting process; and property and casualty products primarily in the United States., the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Canada. The Personal Insurance segment offers property and casualty insurance covering personal risks, primarily automobile and homeowners insurance to individuals. It distributes its products through independent agents, sponsoring organizations, joint marketing arrangements with other insurers, and direct marketing. The company was founded in 1853 and is based in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Dan Carroll]

  With the fear winding down, all eyes return to earnings season -- and the Dow had four firms at the plate today. Insurance company Travelers (NYSE: TRV  ) kicked things off with a strong report this morning, and shares of the company have jumped 2%. Travelers reported an 11% year-over-year gain in earnings and record quarterly operating profit, easily beating average analyst expectations. The firm also raised its dividend, and despite record-low interest rates that have pressured the company's financials, Travelers' price hikes over the past couple of years have paid off: The company's consumer insurance business helped fuel the earnings beat.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: Progress Software Corporation(PRGS)

Progress Software Corporation operates as an enterprise software company worldwide. Its products include Progress OpenEdge platform, which offers development tools, application servers, application management tools, and an embedded database; Progress Orbix to address enterprise integration problems with standards-based solutions; and Progress ObjectStore, an object data management system to store data faster than relational database management system or file-based storage system. The company?s products also comprise Progress Responsiveness Process Management suite for business users; Progress Control Tower, an interactive business control panel; Progress Sonic, which comprises an enterprise messaging system and the enterprise service buses; Progress Actional that provides operational and business visibility, root cause analysis, and policy-based security and control of services; Progress Apama, which offers tools for creating, testing, and deploying strategies for applicat ions, including algorithmic trading, market aggregation, smart order routing, market surveillance and monitoring, and risk management; Progress Savvion BusinessManager, a business process management software; and Fuse products that provide customers with access to professional open source integration and messaging software. In addition, it offers Progress DataDirect Connect products, which provide data connectivity components; Progress DataDirect Shadow to provide foundation architecture for standards-based mainframe integration; and Progress Data Services product set that offers data integration for distributed applications. Further, the company provides maintenance, consulting, training, and customer support services. Progress Software Corporation sells its products to independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, and system integrators through direct sales force and independent distributors. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Bedford, Massac husetts.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Rick Munarriz]

  Progress Software (NASDAQ: PRGS  ) moved higher after posting better-than-expected quarterly results this week. The provider of developer tools software saw revenue rise by a better-than-expected 10%, and its adjusted net income of $0.27 a share blew past the $0.22 a share that the market was forecasting.�

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: Express-1 Expedited Solutions Inc.(XPO)

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides third-party logistics services using a network of relationships with ground, sea, and air carriers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Express-1, Concert Group Logistics, and Bounce Logistics. The Express-1 segment offers ground expedited surface transportation services for freight. It operates a fleet ranging from cargo vans to semi tractor trailer units. The Concert Group Logistics segment provides domestic and international freight forwarding services through a network of independently owned stations. Its domestic freight forwarding services include air charter, expedites, and time sensitive services, as well as cost sensitive services comprising deferred delivery, less than truckload, and full truck load services; and international freight forwarding services consist of on-board courier and air charters, time sensitive services, less-than-container and full-container-loads, and vessel charters. This segm ent also offers documentation on international shipments, customs clearance and banking, trade show shipment management, time definite and customized product distributions, reverse logistics and on site asset recovery projects, installation coordination, freight optimization, and diversity compliance support services. The Bounce Logistics segment provides premium freight brokerage services for truckload shipments. The company serves approximately 4,000 retail, commercial, manufacturing, and industrial customers through 6 U.S. operations centers and 22 agent locations. It offers its services to the automotive manufacturing, automotive components and supplies, commercial printing, durable goods manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, food and consumer products, and high tech sectors. The company was formerly known as Express-1 Expedited Solutions, Inc. and changed its name to XPO Logistics, Inc. in September 2011. XPO Logistics, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Buchanan, Michi gan.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Travis Hoium]

  What: Shares of XPO Logistics (NYSE: XPO  ) jumped 13% today after announcing an acquisition.

  So what: The company will pay $365 million for logistics provider 3PD, consisting of $357 million in cash an $8 million in XPO restricted stock. Is will use its own cash and borrow $195 million from Credit Suisse Group for the remainder of the purchase. �

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: Majesco Entertainment Company(COOL)

Majesco Entertainment Company develops and markets video game products primarily for family oriented mass-market consumers. The company publishes video games for various interactive entertainment hardware platforms, including Nintendo?s DS, DSi, and Wii; Sony?s PlayStation 3 and PlayStation Portable; Microsoft?s Xbox 360; and personal computers. It also publishes games for various digital platforms consisting of mobile platforms comprising iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch, as well as online platforms, including Facebook. The company sells its products primarily to retail chains, specialty retail stores, video game rental outlets, and distributors. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Edison, New Jersey.

Top 10 Cheap Companies To Watch For 2014: Popular Inc.(BPOP)

Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of retail and commercial banking products and services primarily to corporate clients, small and middle size businesses, and retail clients in Puerto Rico and Mainland United States. It offers deposit products; commercial, consumer, and mortgage loans, as well as lease finance; and finance and advisory services. The company also offers trust and asset management, brokerage and investment banking, and insurance and reinsurance services. As of December 31, 2010, it owned and occupied approximately 94 branch premises and other facilities in Puerto Rico; and 119 offices, including 20 owned and 99 leased in New York, Illinois, New Jersey, California, Florida, and Texas. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jake L'Ecuyer]

  Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) shares tumbled 5.54 percent to $27.48 after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal-weight to Underweight.

  Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE: ROYT) down, falling 7.13 percent to $16.70 after the company priced a public offering by Pacific Coast Energy Company LP and other selling unitholders of 13,500,000 trust units at a price of $17.10 per unit.

5 Stock Trades to Take This Week

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- In case you missed the memo, October has been a stellar month for stocks. Since the start of the month, the S&P 500 has managed to shove its way 4.8% higher, tacking on some serious performance onto an already solid 2013. But most investors wouldn't know it.

After all, with all the drama surrounding the government shutdown, the bickering over the next Fed chairman and the anxiety over pared down earnings expectations, investors could be forgiven for not noticing the upside action. None of that changes that the S&P closed at new all-time highs yesterday.

Yes, this is still very much a "buy the dips" market.

So to take full advantage of the strength in stocks, we're taking a closer technical look at five individual names with breakout potential this week.

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

Without further ado, let's take a look at five technical setups worth trading now.

Mohawk Industries

First up is $10 billion flooring maker Mohawk Industries (MHK). 2013 has been a stellar year for shares of Mohawk, with the stock rallying more than 46% on the strength of the housing sector.

But don't ignore this stock just because you missed the move. MHK looks well-positioned for more upside in 2013.

That's because Mohawk is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish price setup that's formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares (at $135 in this case) and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as shares of MHK bounce in between those two technical price levels, they're getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above resistance. When that breakout happens, it's time to be a buyer.

Shares have gotten swatted down on each of the last four attempts at the $135 level. That glut of selling pressure makes a move through it all the more significant. We could see another test of $135 happen this week.

HanesBrands

HanesBrands (HBI) is another name that's posted stellar performance in 2013. But the past few months have been relatively flat for shares of the apparel maker. Here's how to trade it.

HanesBrands has spent the last three months in a rectangle pattern, a price setup that's formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares at $64 and another horizontal support level down at $59. The rectangle gets its name because it essentially "boxes in" shares -- but like the setup in MHK, the buy signal comes on a breakout through the top of the channel at $64. HBI is testing its breakout range in today's trading session.

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of those buyers and sellers. Rectangles, triangles and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That $64 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above it so significant. The move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level.

Don't be early on this trade.

URS

Despite the broad market's bullish bias right now, not every name looks equally strong. URS (URS) makes a good case in point. While the $4 billion engineering stock has fared well year-to-date, it's starting to look "toppy" from here.

The double top pattern is a price setup that's formed by two swing highs that peak at the same level. Those two tops happened in early September and then again in the middle of this month. A move through $52 is the signal that it's time to be a seller in URS. While this stock still has a little while to go before it goes into bear mode, I'd be paying close attention to that $52 support line if I were a shareholder in this name.

The inverse head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern that indicates exhaustion among sellers. It's formed by two swing lows that bottom out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a deeper low (the head). The buy signal comes on a move through the neckline, which is right at $950. The fact that NVR's neckline level comes right at a big round number price is significant; it means that if shares can catch a bid above $950, more investor eyes are going to be fixated on a move through that level.

Here again, momentum adds some confidence to this trade. RSI has been in an uptrend since the pattern started forming in shares, and it's held that uptrend on the pullbacks. Since momentum is a leading indicator of price, there's clearly an upside bias in this stock right now.

Telecom Argentina

We're seeing the exact same setup in shares of Telecom Argentina (TEO) right now: Just like NVR, this mid-cap Argentina-based telco is forming an inverse head and shoulders setup. The key difference with TEO is the fact that the pattern is coming in at the top of this stock's recent range, rather than the bottom That's not a textbook setup, but the trading implications are exactly the same.

TEO's neckline level is right at $20. If shares are able to hold a move through that $20 price level, it makes sense to be a buyer in this Latin American communications stock. After that, I'd recommend keeping a protective stop on the other side of the 50-day moving average.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

The Grand Superstition - John Hussman

In 1948, the behaviorist B.F. Skinner reported an experiment in which pigeons were presented with food at fixed intervals, with no relationship to any given pigeon's behavior. Despite that lack of relationship, most of the pigeons developed distinct superstitious rituals and maneuvers, apparently believing that these actions resulted in food. As Skinner reported, "Their appearance as the result of accidental correlations with the presentation of the stimulus is unmistakable."

Superstition is a by-product of the search for patterns between events – usually occurring in close proximity. This kind of search for patterns is essential for the continuation of a species, but it also lends itself to false beliefs. As Foster and Kokko (2009) put it, "The inability of individuals – human or otherwise – to assign causal probabilities to all sets of events that occur around them… will often force them to make many incorrect causal associations, in order to establish those that are essential for survival."

The ability to infer cause and effect, based on the frequency with which one event co-occurs with some other event, is called "adaptive" or "Bayesian" learning. Humans, pigeons, and many animals have this ability to learn relationships in their world. Still, one thing that separates humans from animals is the ability to evaluate whether there is really any actual mechanistic link between cause and effect. When we stop looking for those links, and believe that one thing causes another because "it just does" – we give up the benefits of human intelligence and exchange them for the reflexive impulses of lemmings, sheep, and pigeons.

To paraphrase Beck & Forstmeier (2007, italics mine):

The occurrence of superstitious beliefs is an inevitable consequence of an organism's ability to learn from observation of coincidence. Comparison with previous experiences improves the chances of making the right decision. While this approach is found in most learning organi! sms, humans have evolved a unique ability to judge from experiences whether a cause has the power to mechanistically produce the observed effect. Such strong causal thinking evolved because it allowed humans to understand and manipulate their environment. Strong causal thinking, however, involves the generation of hypotheses about underlying mechanisms.

When we fail to think about the mechanisms that link cause and effect, we lose much of the benefit of having a human intelligence.

Superstition and Credit Crisis

In general, the larger the events, the more important the events are to survival, and the closer in proximity those events occur, the more likely an organism is to believe those events are tied together by cause and effect. This makes the 2008-2009 credit crisis an ideal playground for superstition.

When we examine the 2008-2009 credit crisis in retrospect, there's no question that the central concern at that time was that massive bank failures would trigger a "global financial meltdown." The risk of widespread failures was driven by losses in mortgage-backed securities and related assets held by major banks, and by highly leveraged financial institutions like Bear Stearns and Lehman, representing the "shadow" banking system.

The balance sheet of a major bank looks like this: for every $100 of assets, the bank typically owes about $60 to depositors and $30 to bondholders, with the other $10 representing retained earnings and "equity" capital obtained by issuing stock. With $100 in assets against $10 in capital, a bank like this would be "leveraged 10-to-1" against its equity capital. At non-banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman, the leverage ratios were 30-to-1 or higher. Given 30 times leverage, it only takes a decline of just over 3% in the value of the assets to completely wipe out the capital and leave the company insolvent (as the remaining value of assets would be unable to pay off the existing obligations to customers and bondholders). In such ! an enviro! nment, a "run" on the institution can force asset sales, which accelerate capital losses and increase the likelihood of insolvency.

Under existing accounting rules, banks and other financial institutions were required to report the value of the securities they held, using prevailing market prices, a requirement known as "mark-to-market." As asset values collapsed in 2008 and early-2009 because of mortgage losses, financial institutions across the globe found themselves rapidly approaching insolvency.

As the willingness of investors to buy mortgage securities seized up, and economic activity plunged, the Federal Reserve stepped into the financial markets and became the major purchaser of existing and new mortgage securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This arguably helped to support continuing activity in the housing market, but it is not what ended the crisis.

Rather, the crisis ended – and in hindsight, ended precisely – on March 16, 2009, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board abandoned mark-to-market rules, in response to Congressional pressure by the House Committee on Financial Services on March 12, 2009. The decision by the FASB gave banks "substantial discretion" in the values that they assigned to assets. With that discretion, banks could use cash-flow models ("mark-to-model") or other methods ("mark-to-unicorn").

[ Enlarge Image ]

The problem for investors is that this was quite a subtle event – hardly memorable, and certainly not grand and obvious like the Federal Reserve's intervention was. But we are wired for survival, and the larger the events, and the closer they are in proximity, the more likely we are to draw cause and effect connections between them. That's particularly true if there is at least a weakly logical way that they might be related (as was true the Fed's mortgage support).

Importantly, the impact of the FAS 157 change ! is easier! to appreciate in hindsight than it was in the fog of war. Its success relied on regulators to go along with the new numbers, and bank depositors and customers to believe them. I've frequently discussed our own response to the crisis, which was to insist that our methods to estimate market return/and risk were robust to Depression-era outcomes (even though our existing methods had anticipated the crisis and performed admirably during the market collapse). It's no secret that we missed returns in the interim as a result. We are evidence-driven investors, and similar economic and financial disruptions were simply out of context from the standpoint of post-war evidence. Nevertheless, it's critical to go back and understand the actual mechanism that ended the crisis, so that we as investors don't allow ourselves to be misled into an increasingly false sense of security about Federal Reserve actions. It's probably also worth observing how heavilly banks have relied on the release of "loan loss reserves" in order to beat earnings estimates in recent periods.

The Grand Superstition

The misattribution of cause and effect in 2009 created the Grand Superstition of our time – the belief that Federal Reserve policy was responsible for ending the financial crisis and sending the stock market higher. By 2010, this narrative was so fully accepted that the Fed's announcement of further "quantitative easing" was met by equally great enthusiasm by investors.

Complicating matters, the European Central Bank forestalled a currency crisis in Europe through massive purchases of debt from credit-strained member countries. While this action was interpreted as quantitative easing, it actually functioned as a funding operation to weaker countries that was much more akin to a fiscalsubsidy from stronger countries like Germany. Still, the fact that it was executed by the central bank and eased the Euro crisis helped to contribute to a perception that central bank purchases of government securities – in a! nd of the! mselves – are sufficient to support the stock markets indefinitely. Worse, perception creates its own reality in the financial markets, so provided enough investors believe something to be true, the outcome is the same as if it really were, but only for a while.

Don't misunderstand. Quantitative easing has undoubtedly been the primary driver of stock prices since 2010. But the benefit of having a human intelligence is the ability to evaluate the extent to which there is anymechanistic link between the cause and the effect. If there is not, investors may be resting their confidence on little more than perception and superstition. This is exactly what historical data indicates.

In the case of quantitative easing, there is one variable that is tightly, logically, and consistently linked to Fed actions. We have nearly a century of evidence that the amount of base money created by the Fed (per dollar of GDP) is strikingly related to the level of short-term interest rates. The chart below illustrates this relationship in data since 1929. Yet the same effect is not observed with anything close to the same strength for long-term bond yields. Worse, looking over the full course of history, there is virtually no relationship between the monetary base (level, change, ratio to GDP) and stock returns (regardless of whether one examines concurrent returns, subsequent returns, yields, or estimated prospective market returns).

[ Enlarge Image ]

The reason for the weak relationship between the monetary base and stock prices is simple. Though the monetary base is strongly related to Treasury bill yields, it turns out that Treasury bill yields themselves are only weakly related across history to stock yields. The belief in a close relationship between interest rates and stock yields is actually driven by the strong inflation-deflation cycle from 1970 to about 1998. Outside of this period, stock yields and interest rates h! ave gener! ally been negatively correlated.

There's no denying that since 2008, there has been a correlation of more than 90% between the level monetary base and the level of the S&P 500. But this is an artifact of how correlation is calculated. The correlation between any two diagonal lines is nearly always greater than 90%. Unfortunately, the moment we examine data that doesn't resemble a diagonal line (for example, year-over-year changes in the monetary base versus stock prices prior to 2009), the correlation doesn't hold up at all, and variations in the monetary base explain only about 1-3% of variations in stock prices.

Still, the rate of monetary growth has been breathtaking in recent years, relative to history, so it's important to understand the mechanism by which QE has exerted its effects more recently. Simply put, quantitative easing impacts stock prices by creating a mountain of zero-interest cash that must be held by someone at each point in time. The hope and mechanism behind QE is to force those cash holders to feel so distressed that they reach for yield in speculative assets they would otherwise choose not to hold. The process ends at the point where investors are indifferent between holding zero-interest cash and more speculative securities such as long-term bonds or stocks. At this point, every speculative security is priced to achieve the lowest possible risk premium that investors are willing to accept. And here we are.

What's important here is that in any environment where savers and investors actually desire relatively safe assets as part of their portfolios, quantitative easing is likely to be wholly ineffective in supporting stock prices. Recall that stock prices collapsed by half in 2000-2002 and again in 2007-2009 despite aggressive monetary easing. A friendly Fed doesn't help stocks to advance except in environments where investors are alreadyinclined to accept risk. To believe that QE makes stocks go up because "it just does" is superstition.

As ! for emplo! yment, it's quite straightforward to demonstrate that there is virtually zero relationship between changes in the monetary base and subsequent job growth, nor is there any inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment (the actual relationship is weakly positive and slopes up), nor between inflation and subsequent unemployment, nor in countless other variants of monetary "transmission" that Fed members and Wall Street economists constantly assert as if the evidence actually supports their statements.

That said, there are certainly some relationships that can be demonstrated in the data. For example, if we look at stock market changes and real GDP, it turns out that every 10% change in the stock market is associated with a temporary increase in real GDP over the following year or two in the range of 0.3% and 0.5%. So a 40% increase in the market is correlated with an increase of about 1.2% to 2% in real GDP. It's not clear that this is actually a correlation that can be manipulated to encourage higher GDP – which is what the Fed is trying to achieve – but it's at least a relationship that can be estimated.

Likewise, if we look at stock market changes and employment, it turns out that every 10% change in the stock market is associated with a temporary decrease in the unemployment rate of about 0.2%. So a 40% increase in the stock market is correlated with a decline of about 0.8% in the unemployment rate. Again, it's not clear that this is actually a correlation that can be manipulated, but that's the order of magnitude that can be expected even if the Fed's efforts are successful.

As for the Phillips Curve, it's important to recognize that the actual Phillips curve is a statement about wages, not general prices. There is, in fact, a strong inverse relationship between unemployment and real wage inflation. Low unemployment is associated with faster growth in real wages. High unemployment is associated with slower growth in real wages. This can be demonstrate! d clearly! , and in data from many countries. This is the phenomenon that A.W. Phillips described in his 1958 paper on the subject. Though he stated the relationship between unemployment and wage inflation in nominal ("money") terms, Phillips based his conclusions on a century of data where Britain was on the gold standard and general prices were very stable, so in effect, the "money" wage fluctuations observed by Phillips were actually real wage fluctuations.

In sum, the financial markets presently rest on a spectacular and exaggerated superstition about the power of Fed policy to impact the financial markets and the real economy. This superstition was born of crisis, and is likely to end in crisis, as investors re-learn what they should have learned about Fed policy in the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 plunges.

In 2001, after the market had lost a quarter of its value, a major brokerage took out a full-page ad in Barron's arguing for a one-year price target that was more than 50% above then-prevailing market levels, saying "Stocks should soon be benefiting from the sweet spot of a friendly Fed: low interest rates and improved earnings visibility." Yet despite the friendly Fed, the market went on to lose another third of its value in just over a year. Why? Because monetary conditions are at best a modifier to the combination of valuations, market action, and overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions. The worst market declines on record have been accompanied by a "friendly Fed." At the time, I quoted Stevie Wonder: "When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer."

The vast majority of the benefit from "don't fight the Fed, don't fight the tape" comes from the "tape" part of that aphorism. That combination is powerfully outperformed by the combination of embracing favorable market action, amplifying or muting that response based on valuation, and entirely avoiding overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions (see Aligning Market Exposure ! with the ! Expected Return/Risk Profile for a simple illustration, andFollowing the Fed to 50% Flops for a reminder of the danger of following the Fed in situations when these other conditions have been unfavorable).

Probably the most challenging aspect of quantitative easing is that, particularly since late-2011, overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions usually associated with severe market losses have instead been associated with even more extreme speculation. That has made the advancing portion of this unfinished half cycle difficult. Still, my expectation is that investors will ultimately look back at the present market exuberance in hindsight and ask "after watching the market collapse following nearly identical bubbles in 2000 and 2007, despite aggressive monetary easing, how did we actually refuse to consider major losses in the belief – yet again – that this time was different?"

One of the differences between a pigeon and a human being is the ability to think about the mechanisms that drive cause and effect, rather than being ruled by superstitions that may be based on completely spurious correlations. At present, investors seem universally convinced that quantitative easing just makes stock prices go up, and that at some future point in time, investors will all be able to exit their holdings and sell to even greater fools. But as I wrote in May 2007 a few months before the market's pre-crash highs, "There may not be that many greater fools out there after all. As they say, if you're sitting at the poker table and you can't spot the pigeon… you're probably the pigeon."

The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. Only comments in the Fund Notes section relate specifically to the Hussman Funds and the investment positions of the Funds.

Top 10 Gol! d Stocks ! For 2014

Fund Notes

From a full-cycle perspective, I continue to believe that the stock market is vulnerable to potential losses in the 40-55% range, much like we observed and anticipated in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. I wish this were different, and that we were instead observing a landscape of investment opportunities, with reasonable prices, high prospective returns, and supporting the economy by channeling savings to productive investment. As conditions stand, we observe a speculative carnival. We presently estimate 10-year expected nominal total returns for the S&P 500 of just 2.5% annually.

From the standpoint of evidence, which is how we set our investment positions, we continue to observe uneven, speculative, and overbought market action, with spike in the difference between advisory bullishness and bearishness according to Investors Intelligence. In addition, the S&P 500 has moved through its upper Bollinger bands at daily, weekly and monthly resolutions (two standard deviations above the respective 20-period moving averages). We also observe rich valuations on a wide variety of measures that are tightly correlated with subsequent market returns. These valuations are exemplified by a Shiller P/E (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation adjusted earnings) that has now reached 25.

Among other factors, this full syndrome of severely overvalued, overbought, and overbullish conditions removes the basis for "contingent" positions – specifically index call options – and significantly raises our immediate concern about market risk. Particularly since late-2011, overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes that have historically resulted in striking market losses have instead been followed by further speculation. Still, a further speculative blowoff would only raise the cliff that we believe the market already faces over the completion of this cycle. Consider us defensive – possibly to varying degrees depending on near-term evidence – but generally defe! nsive in ! any event.

Strategic Growth remains fully hedged, with a "staggered strike" position that raises the strike prices of its index put options modestly below present market levels. Strategic International is fully hedged. Strategic Dividend Value is hedged at about 50% of the value of its stock. Strategic Total Return continues to carry a duration of just over 6 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact Fund value by about 6% on the basis of bond price fluctuations, just over 8% of assets in precious metals shares, and a few percent of assets in utility shares.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131028.htm

This Dow Stock Is Surging Today

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is up after Bernanke continued his congressional testimony, the weekly new unemployment report came in better than expected, and the positive earnings reports continued. As of 1:20 p.m. EDT the Dow is up 64 points, or 0.41%, to 15,534. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) is up 37% to 1,687.

There were two U.S. economic releases today.

Report

Period

Result

Previous

Weekly new unemployment claims	July 6 to July 13	334,000	358,000
Leading indicators	June	0%	0.2%

A perhaps positive sign for the economy is that weekly new unemployment claims fell 24,000 to 334,000. July's numbers can be lower than normal, as the Independence Day weekend and the annual automobile plant retoolings distort unemployment numbers. The less volatile four-week moving average of new unemployment claims fell 5,250 to 346,000.

US Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance data by YCharts.

So far this year, unemployment has been trending below last year's average of 360,000 to 370,000.

The other economic report today was the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S., which remained unchanged in June at 95.3.

The index is made up of 10 indicators and is designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The large drop in building permits that we saw yesterday was offset by the large spread between the 10-year Treasury and the federal funds rate, a rise in the leading credit index, and the drop in weekly initial unemployment claims.

The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks can borrow from the Federal Reserve; it's currently set at 0.25%. The Fed has been purchasing $85 billion worth of long-term assets each month in an effort to bring down Treasury bond and mortgage rates so that banks will invest in things besides T-bonds and mortgages. This policy has been controversial to say the least, and today Ben Bernanke is delivering congressional testimony for the second day in a row, this time before the Senate Banking Committee, sharing his thoughts on the economy and what the Federal Reserve is doing.

Yesterday, Bernanke reiterated his belief that the economy is steadily improving and that the Federal Reserve could begin tapering its asset purchases by the end of the year but likely won't until mid-2014. Today Bernanke did not have a prepared statement and simply took questions from committee members. There wasn't much news; one member of the committee likened Bernanke's testimony to day-old coffee. Bernanke again emphasized that the Federal Reserve will continue its accommodative policies so long as necessary to reach the Federal Reserve's targets of 6.5% unemployment and 2% to 2.5% inflation.

Today's Dow leader
Today's Dow leader is UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH  ) , up 6.4%. UnitedHealth reported that its earnings rose by 8% to $1.40 per share, beating analyst expectations of $1.25 per share. Revenue rose 12% to $30.41 billion, slightly below analysts' estimates of $40.52 billion. The large rise in revenue and earnings owed to the addition of 3.2 million new members in the quarter. UnitedHealth also upped its full-year guidance for the year to $5.35 to $5.50 per share from its previous guidance of $5.25 to $5.50 per share.

As the largest insurer by revenue, UnitedHealth is seen as a bellwether for the rest of the health insurance sector. The real determinant of the health insurance industry's future, however, will be Obamacare's individual mandate, which takes effect next year.

Obamacare will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects. The Motley Fool's new free report, "Everything You Need to Know About Obamacare," lets you know how your health insurance, your taxes, and your portfolio could be impacted. Click here to read more.

Here's How CONMED Is Making So Much for You

Margins matter. The more CONMED (Nasdaq: CNMD  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong CONMED's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for CONMED over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 54.5%, while operating margin is 10.7% and net margin is 5.4%.

Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where CONMED has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for CONMED over the past few years.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Top Cheap Companies To Own For 2014

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 53.8% and averaged 52.1%. Operating margin peaked at 10.8% and averaged 9.6%. Net margin peaked at 5.4% and averaged 3.4%. TTM gross margin is 54.5%, 240 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 10.7%, 110 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 5.4%, 200 basis points better than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins exceeding historical averages, CONMED looks like it is doing fine.

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Add CONMED to My Watchlist.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now

We were supposed to get a glimpse inside the portfolio of�Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) today, when the company’s 13F filing was scheduled to be released to the public. Instead nothing.

Associated Press

Now we know why. Reuters explains:

A spokesman for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said the regulator’s Edgar system is again disseminating filings after a disruption that caused dissemination to stop at 3:43 p.m. EDT. He said the disruption created a backlog of filings, which the system is again processing.

An assistant to Buffett said Berkshire filed its so-called 13F filing detailing many of its investments “well in advance” of the Wednesday deadline, and expects the filing to be available to the public on Thursday morning.

Last quarter, Buffett sold his stakes in�Archer Daniels Midland�(ADM) and�General Dynamics�(GD), and added to a position�in�International Business Machines�(IBM). He also bought shares of�Chicago Bridge & Iron�(CBI), an old favorite of mine from my trading days.�

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: Shell Refining Company (FED OF MALAYA)

Shell Refining Company (Federation of Malaya) Berhad is principally engaged in refining and manufacturing of petroleum products. The Company operates primarily in Malaysia. Its operations also include the gas to liquids (GTL) plant of its kind in Bintulu, Sarawak, and a refinery in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan. Its upstream operations focus on the development and extraction of crude oil and natural gas offshore Sarawak and Sabah. In downstream its main activity is in refining, supply, trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products through the sales and marketing of transportation fuels, lubricants, specialty products and technical services. The Company is also a partner in two joint ventures that convert natural gas to liquefied natural gas. Royal Dutch Shell plc is its holding company.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: Section Rouge Media Inc. (SRO.V)

Section Rouge M茅dia inc. does not have significant operations. Previously, the company engaged in editing newspapers and magazines. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Longueuil, Canada.

5 Best Canadian Stocks To Watch For 2014: Silvore Fox Minerals Corp (SFX.V)

Silvore Fox Minerals Corp., a development stage company, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral resource properties in Canada. The company explores for base and precious metals, such as copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, zinc, and cobalt. It primarily holds interest in the Coxheath property and Oceanview claims located in the Nova Scotia. The company was formerly known as Silvor Foxx Capital Corp. and changed its name to Silvore Fox Minerals Corp. in October 2008. Silvore Fox Minerals Corp is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: Dcc Ord Eur0.25(DCC.L)

DCC plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides procurement, sales, marketing, distribution, and business support services in Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company?s Energy segment provides oil and liquefied petroleum gas products, as well as involves in the fuel card services business. It supplies transport fuels, heating oils, and fuel oils to commercial, domestic, agricultural, and industrial customers. As of March 31, 2011, this segment served approximately 800,000 customers from its network of 261 facilities. DCC plc?s SerCom segment sells a range of consumer products, including games consoles and software, consumer electronics, audio visual accessories and peripherals, and home entertainment products to e-tailers, grocers, and catalogue retailers; IT products, such as PCs, peripherals, printers, consumables, and network products; and data management, security and virtualization software, servers, and storage products to value added reselle rs, large account resellers, and independent software vendors. It also provides supply chain management services comprising procurement and sourcing services. The company?s Healthcare segment offers sales, marketing, and distribution services to healthcare providers, and medical and pharmaceutical brand owners/manufacturers; and outsourced product development, manufacturing, and packing services to the health and beauty industry. Its Environmental segment provides waste management and recycling services to the industrial, commercial, construction, and public sectors. The company?s Food and Beverage segment markets and sells food and beverage products to grocery multiples, independent retailers, pharmacies, hotels, restaurants, and cafes; offers frozen and chilled food, and contract catering services; and operates retail restaurants. DCC plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Blackrock, Ireland.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: Csm Systems Corp (CKX.V)

CSM Systems Corp., through its subsidiary, Visionstate Inc., develops, installs, and customizes interactive touch screen customer service technology suitable for various types of public spaces. Its core software platform is known as ViCCi, an acronym for virtual customer care interface. The company offers building digital display networks and digital sales assistants to customers, including shopping centers, recreation centers, office buildings, and other places that require wayfinding. It also provides mobile iphone applications; and sells its kiosks to home development project for displaying information about the project. In addition, the company offers consulting, graphic, and Web design and related services and support. CSM Systems Corp. is based in Edmonton, Canada.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: SmartPros Ltd.(SPRO)

SmartPros Ltd. provides learning and training solutions for accounting/finance, legal, engineering, securities, and insurance markets, as well as for banking and information technology (IT) professionals. Its products and services include accounting and finance libraries; SmartPros Advantage, a skills-based learning library; financial management network, a library of programs dealing with current topics; CPA Report, a library of programs that cover various topics in public accounting for accountants in public practice; CPA report government and not-for-profit, a library of programs designed for accounting professionals; and customized programs for its clients. The company?s engineering library comprises fundamentals of engineering exam review, PE Civil Exam Review course for civil engineers, online professional development hours, project management for engineers, supply chain and CPIM certification, and green engineering. It also offers continuing legal education; and cou rses, including banking compliance, general banking, general bank management, insurance, lending, retirement and estate planning, securities, ethics, anti-money laundering, financial planning, and industry-related sales and services, as well as provides various courses focusing on IT related briefings to executives, technologists, and consultants. The company?s training solutions comprise training in corporate governance, ethics, finance, and compliance for the general corporate market; and pharmaceutical, professional services, banking, securities, and insurance industries. In addition, SmartPros Ltd. offers video production, duplication, consulting, e-marketing, and e-commerce services. It provides its products in various formats consisting of print, CD-ROM, DVD, videotapes, and through the Internet. The company was formerly known as KeepSmart.com, Inc. and changed its name to SmartPros Ltd. in June 2001. SmartPros Ltd. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Hawthorn e, New York.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: Aviat Networks Inc.(AVNW)

Aviat Networks, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of a range of wireless networking products, solutions, and services worldwide. It offers point-to-point and point-to-multipoint digital microwave transmission systems for first/last mile access, middle mile/backhaul, and long distance trunking applications. The company?s products include broadband wireless access base stations and customer premises equipment for fixed and mobile; point-to-point digital microwave radio systems for access, backhaul, trunking, and license-exempt applications; and supporting network deployments, network expansion, and capacity upgrades. It also provides network management software solutions to enable operators to deploy, monitor, and manage its systems, as well as third party equipment, such as antennas, routers, and multiplexers to build and deploy a wireless transmission network and a suite of turnkey support services. In addition, the company offers professional services, su ch as network planning and design, site surveys and builds, systems integration, installation, maintenance, network monitoring, training, and customer services. It serves mobile and fixed communications service providers, original equipment manufacturers, private network operators, government agencies, transportation and utility companies, system integrators, public safety agencies, and broadcast system operators, as well as pipeline, railroad, and other industrial enterprises that operate wireless networks. The company was formerly known as Harris Stratex Networks, Inc. and changed its name to Aviat Networks, Inc. in January 2010. Aviat Networks, Inc. is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Best Warren Buffett Companies To Watch In Right Now: Quest Software Inc.(QSFT)

Quest Software, Inc. designs, develops, markets, distributes, and supports enterprise systems management software products worldwide. The company provides database management products, including Toad for Oracle and cloud databases; benchmark factory for databases, to conduct database workload replay, industry-standard benchmark testing, and scalability testing; Toad Data Modeler; and Stat for Oracle E-Business suite, a change management and version control solution. It also offers performance monitoring products comprising Foglight End User Business Analysis suite; Foglight for Oracle E-Business suite; Foglight for Oracle; and vFoglight for performance monitoring and capacity management of complex VMware ESX and Hyper-V environments. In addition, the company offers data protection products, such as vRanger; NetVault Backup that safeguards data and applications in physical and virtual environments; NetVault Replicator, a data replication solution; NetVault FastRecover, whic h enables instant recovery after corruption or data loss; NetVault Smartdisk. Further, it provides windows server management products consisting of MessageStats; Server Administrator for SharePoint; Coexistence Manager for Notes; Migrator for Cloud Email; and Migration Manager for SharePoint. Additionally, the company offers identity and access management products, which include Enterprise Single Sign-on; ActiveRoles Server; Quest One Identity Manager; Access Manager; Defender; Password Manager to reset forgotten passwords securely; and Privilege Manager for Unix. It also provides product maintenance and technical support services; and pre and post sales consulting services, as well as education and training services. The company markets its products and services through its direct sales organization and telesales organization, as well as through value added resellers and distributors. Quest Software, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Aliso Viejo, California.< /p>

Best Safest Stocks To Invest In 2014

The Federal Aviation Administration released a statement Friday outlining a proposal to fine Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) $2.75 million for the airplane manufacturer's alleged failure to maintain its quality control systems.

The root of the dispute stems to September 2008, when Boeing revealed that its 777 fastener components didn't conform to the FAA's standards. From October onward, Boeing and the FAA began a back-and-forth investigation correspondence. The FAA alleges that Boeing continually submitted action plans but failed to follow through by agreed-upon deadlines. Only in November 2010 did the company fully address the issue.

"Safety is our top priority, and a robust quality control system is a vital part of maintaining the world's safest air transportation system," said U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx in a statement. "Airplane manufacturers must take prompt and thorough steps to correct safety and compliance problems once they become aware of them."

Best Safest Stocks To Invest In 2014: Under Armour Inc.(UA)

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers products made from moisture-wicking synthetic fabrics designed to regulate body temperature and enhance performance regardless of weather conditions. The company provides its products in three fit types: compression (tight fitting), fitted (athletic cut), and loose (relaxed) extending across the sporting goods, outdoor, and active lifestyle markets. Its footwear offerings comprise football, baseball, lacrosse, softball, and soccer cleats; slides; performance training footwear; and running footwear. The company also provides baseball batting, football, golf, and running gloves, as well as licenses bags, socks, headwear, custom-molded mouth guards, and eyewear that are designed to be used and worn before, during, and after competition. Under Armour sells its products through retai l stores, as well as directly to consumers through its own retail outlets and specialty stores, Website, and catalogs. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Travis Hoium]

  But success comes with a target ,and other athletic companies are gunning for Nike's growth. Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) , Oakley, Puma, Adidas, and other brands are trying to play where Nike dominates. Here's how Nike has gotten ahead of the competition, as well as a look at how it can stay ahead.

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  On Friday, Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

• [By Daniel Sparks]

  Competition
  Though Nike does boast impressive gross margins compared to its footwear competitors, three of them, Adidas, Puma, and Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) , are large enough to cause some disruption in some of Nike's markets.

• [By Rich Smith]

  On the plus side, though, one analyst is naming Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) a winner. Let's start the week's final trading day off on a bright note and begin with that one:

Best Safest Stocks To Invest In 2014: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras(PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. primarily engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production, refining, trade, and transportation businesses. The company?s Exploration and Production segment involves in the exploration, production, development, and production of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas in Brazil. This segment supplies its products to the refineries in Brazil, as well as sells surplus petroleum and byproducts in domestic and foreign markets. Its Supply segment engages in the refining, logistics, transportation, and trade of oil and oil products; export of ethanol; and extraction and processing of schist, as well as holds interests in companies of the petrochemical sector in Brazil. The Gas and Energy segment involves in the transportation and trade of natural gas produced in or imported into Brazil; transportation and trade of LNG; and generation and trade of electric power. In addition, the segment has interests in natural gas transportation and d istribution companies; and thermoelectric power stations in Brazil, as well engages in fertilizer business. The Distribution segment distributes oil products, ethanol, and compressed natural gas in Brazil. The International segment involves in the exploration and production of oil and gas, as well as in supplying, gas and energy, and distribution operations in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Further, the company involves in biofuel production business. Petroleo Brasileiro was founded in 1953 and is based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Eric Volkman]

  Brazilian energy major Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) is bulking up with a series of large-scale bond issues. The company said this week it aims to raise roughly $11 billion in a set of six flotations, to be issued by its subsidiary Petrobras Global Finance.

• [By David Smith]

  Also, as with its competitors, Halliburton registered meaningful achievements during the quarter, including the above-mentioned new contracts with Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) in Brazil. Those four-year contracts can be expanded for a second equal term, and potentially could result in more than $2.0 billion in revenue for Halliburton. In addition, the company will provide multilateral technology for a pair of mature Statoil (NYSE: STO  ) fields in Norway. That work is based upon a three-year contract, with a pair of possible two-year extensions.

Top 10 Biotech Stocks To Buy Right Now: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Best Safest Stocks To Invest In 2014: Fluor Corporation(FLR)

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance, and project management services worldwide. Its Oil & Gas segment offers design, engineering, procurement, construction, and project management services to upstream oil and gas production, downstream refining, chemicals, and petrochemicals industries. This segment also provides consulting services comprising feasibility studies, process assessment, and project finance structuring and studies. The company?s Industrial & Infrastructure segment offers design, engineering, procurement, and construction services to the transportation, wind power, mining and metals, life sciences, manufacturing, commercial and institutional, telecommunications, microelectronics, and healthcare sectors. Its Government segment provides engineering, construction, logistics support, contingency response, management, and operations services to the United States government focusing on the Departme nt of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. The company?s Global Services segment offers operations and maintenance, small capital project engineering and execution, site equipment and tool services, industrial fleet services, plant turnaround services, temporary staffing services, and supply chain solutions. Its Power segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, program management, start-up and commissioning, and operations and maintenance services to the gas fueled, solid fueled, plant betterment, renewables, nuclear, and power services markets. The company also offers unionized management and construction services in the United States and Canada. Fluor Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By CRWE]

  Fluor Corporation�� (NYSE:FLR) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Seaton, and Chief Financial Officer, Biggs Porter, will give a presentation to investors at the Credit Suisse 2012 Engineering & Construction Conference in New York on Thursday, June 7 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

• [By Louis Navellier]

  Fluor Corporation (FLR) is one of the world�� leading heavy construction and engineering firms. I don’t want to imply that this is a bad company because it is actually a very good one. However, Fluor has divisions including Oil & Gas, Industrial Infrastructure, Government, Global Services and Power. Virtually all of them are seeing limited spending as a result of the global slowdown and reduced government spending around the world. The stock is up more than 23% this year, but earnings are actually down on flat revenues. Analysts have been lowering their estimates for the rest of this year as well as 2014, and the stock is currently rated as a by Portfolio Grader. When the economy recovers, I expect will see this company’s fundamentals improve substantially … but until that happens investors should avoid the stock.

Markets Rally on Improving Auto Sales and Rising Factory Orders

Strong economic data reports were released today, and for the most part investors seem to like what they see. As of 12:45 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) was up 33 points, or 0.22%. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were also higher, up 0.34% and 0.22%, respectively, but all the major indexes have pulled slightly back from their highs of the day, which were hit just before 12 p.m. EDT.

U.S. auto sales experienced a nice bump higher in May, as Ford reported light-vehicle sales rose by 13% in the month, which helped the automaker experience its best June in nearly seven years. All the while, GM managed to post solid numbers as it realized vehicle sales increase of 6.5% in the month, which was the company's best performance in nearly five years.  

In addition to the positive auto reports, U.S. factory orders rose in May by 2.1%, which was an increase from April's revised 1.3% rise. We are now seeing evidence that manufacturing is coming back as we have now experienced three straight months of improving data.  

One would think with the strong factory report that Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) and General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) would both be jumping higher, not topping the Dow's losers list, but they are indeed. Shares of Boeing are down 1.08%, and General Electric is lower by 0.90% this afternoon. The report indicated that demand for aircraft rose 51% in May, which came after an 18.4% rise in April and a drop of 43.3% in March. The only reasonable explanation for Boeing moving lower today is that investors were expecting a higher increase in May. But, even if May didn't wow investors, we would expect next month's report to come in big again, as the Paris Air Show was in June and preliminary reports indicated that Boeing inked a number of big deals during the exhibit.  

As for General Electric, durable goods orders and power generation equipment also both increased in May -- two areas of industry that GE operates in -- but the stock is also lower today. One reason that may be isn't because of the factory orders report, but rather the announcement that the company closed the deal to buy Lufkin Industries for $3.3 billion. The acquisition gives GE more diverse offerings in the oil and gas industry, but as the natural gas boom continues to rage on here in the U.S., the question must be asked, "What will happen when things begin to slow down?" As GE builds out its offerings for this industry, how long will it take the company to recoup this investment -- and will it be worth it in the long run? We have seen GE grow too big before; perhaps the company is once again making the same mistake.  

Lastly, shares of Travelers (NYSE: TRV  ) are trading lower by 0.54% this morning after rising 0.83% yesterday. My Foolish colleague Dan Caplinger commented on yesterday's rise by saying that although the wild fires continue to burn out West, rising bond yields will help the company earn more from its investment portfolio. While I agree with Dan, I also feel that investors, rightfully so, just aren't sure what to do with Travelers at this time. Yes, the company will likely make more money in the future months, but with the recent wildfires and what is being predicted as a very bad hurricane season, the company may also be paying out more in claims than it traditionally does. Year-to-date, Travelers is up 12.31%, while the Dow has risen 14.7%, so the company hasn't been a great investment in 2013. I would predict that it will remain an underperformer and rather volatile for the remainder of the year because of the uncertainty with interest rates and the predicted poor weather forecasts.

More Foolish insight
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Shopping for a Medicare Advantage Plan

Now that open enrollment for Medicare has started, how can I find out if I can get a better deal on a Medicare Advantage plan?

SEE ALSO: Special Report on Navigating Medicare

Open enrollment for 2014 Medicare Advantage plans (which cover both medical and drug costs) and Part D prescription-drug plans runs from October 15 to December 7, and you can find out about all of the plans in your area by using the Medicare.gov Plan Finder tool. Even if your plan's premiums have remained about the same, it's important to look at the co-payments for medical care and your prescription drugs, the plan's maximum out-of-pocket costs, its provider and pharmacy networks, and any extra coverage.

Go to the Medicare.gov Plan Finder, type in your zip code and the type of plan you have now (Medicare Advantage plans are called "Medicare Health Plans" in the tool), enter your drugs and dosages, and select up to two nearby pharmacies.

You'll see how all of the Medicare Advantage plans in your area compare with your current plan. Look at the monthly premium (which doesn't include the charge for Medicare Part B ), but also focus on the "estimated annual health and drug costs" column, which adds up the anticipated out-of-pocket costs for premiums, co-payments and deductibles for people in good health. (To see the estimated costs for someone in poor or excellent health, click on "refine your plan results" and then "change health status.") Some Medicare HMO plans with no premiums beyond the Part B charge are boosting their co-payments significantly, says Ross Blair, of eHealthMedicare.com.

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You can also compare up to three plans in more detail. Click on "Health Plan Benefits" for a breakdown of the co-payments and other out-of-pocket costs for inpatient hospital care, doctors' office visits, skilled nursing facility care, emergency care, specialist office visits and other types of care. Pay special attention to coverage for types of care you frequently receive.

Because you never know exactly what kind of medical care you'll need during the year -- or if you'll develop a medical condition -- it's also important to look at the plans' out-of-pocket spending limit, which is the most you'd have to pay for covered expenses for the year. Maximum out-of-pocket costs can range from about $2,500 to $6,700, depending on the plan. Also see if a plan offers dental, vision and hearing coverage.

Click on the tab for the plans' star ratings, which assess coverage, the effectiveness of communications, and customer service. (You can switch into a plan with a five-star rating anytime during the year, even after open-enrollment season, although many areas do not have five-star plans.)

One important step: See if your doctors, hospitals, pharmacies and other providers are in-network. You can find a link to the plan's Web site (where you can search for network providers) in the "Plan Overview" section, or you can contact the plan directly to confirm that your doctors will remain in the plan next year.

Pay attention to a name change that could affect how the plan covers out-of-network doctors. Diane Omdahl, of 65 Incorporated, a Medicare education site, says some plans are changing from an HMO with a point-of-service option (which charges a higher co-payment to see out-of-network doctors) to a straight HMO in 2014, which means it covers services only in the network. "They must either find a specialist in-network or pay for those services out of pocket, with no coverage," she says. You can also find information about any changes in your current plan in the Annual Notice of Change form, which you should have received from your insurer in late September.

To see lists of the best Medicare Advantage plans by area based on estimates of typical total costs for people in good, fair and poor health, check out HealthMetrix Research's Cost Share Report at MedicareNewsWatch.com. You'll see a link there to the Senior Choice Gold Awards, which recognize Medicare Advantage plans with the best value.

You can get help comparing plans over the phone or in person from your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (go to ShipTalk.org or call 800-633-4227 for contact information).

For more information about finding a Medicare Advantage or Part D plan during open enrollment, see Time for Medicare Open Enrollment. For more about Medicare Advantage plans, see Medicare Advantage Plans Can Cut Costs and Hassle. And see What to Do During Medicare Open Enrollment for a step-by-step guide to comparing Medicare Part D prescription-drug plans during open-enrollment season.

Got a question? Ask Kim at askkim@kiplinger.com.

Ask a Fool: What Do the Rule Breakers Think About Stop Loss Orders?

In the following video, Lyons George, research analyst for The Motley Fool's Rule Breakers service, takes a question from a Fool member, who asks:

I'm a new Rule Breakers member. I tend to be drawn to the riskier side of stocks compared to my husband. I've dabbled in stop loss orders recently, but I'm finding I either don't like them, or I don't do them well. My question is, what is your opinion on stop loss orders vs. let it ride?

One stock Lyons discusses in the video is Netflix. The tumultuous performance of Netflix shares since the summer of 2011 has caused headaches for many devoted shareholders. While the company's first-mover status is often viewed as a competitive advantage, the opportunities in streaming media have brought some new, deep-pocketed rivals looking for their piece of a growing pie. Can Netflix fend off this burgeoning competition, and will its international growth aspirations really pay off? These are must-know issues for investors, which is why The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so make sure to click here and claim a copy today.

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Don't Get Too Worked Up Over Nova Measuring Instruments's Earnings

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Nova Measuring Instruments (Nasdaq: NVMI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Nova Measuring Instruments generated $7.0 million cash while it booked net income of $11.5 million. That means it turned 7.0% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Nova Measuring Instruments look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

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With 22.0% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Nova Measuring Instruments investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 20.0% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 32.8% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Is Nova Measuring Instruments your best play in technology? Computers, mobile devices, and related services are creating huge amounts of valuable data, but only for companies that can crunch the numbers and make sense of it. Meet the leader in this field in "The Only Stock You Need To Profit From the NEW Technology Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

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Earnings Scheduled For October 18, 2013

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.40 per share on revenue of $7.70 billion.

Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.78 per share on revenue of $5.77 billion.

General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.35 per share on revenue of $35.96 billion.

First Horizon National (NYSE: FHN) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.18 per share on revenue of $307.14 million.

Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (NYSE: LH) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.80 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion.

Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $1.24 per share on revenue of $11.58 billion.

Honeywell International (NYSE: HON) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.24 per share on revenue of $9.92 billion.

Ingersoll-Rand Plc (NYSE: IR) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $1.10 per share on revenue of $3.73 billion.

SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.70 per share on revenue of $2.14 billion.

Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) is expected to report its Q1 earnings at $1.48 per share on revenue of $3.26 billion.

Textron (NYSE: TXT) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.47 per share on revenue of $2.97 billion.

The Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion.

Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $1.11 per share on revenue of $622.27 million.

Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.19 per share on revenue of $3.76 billion.

First Niagara Financial Group (NASDAQ: FNFG) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.19 per share on revenue of $365.77 million.

Posted-In: Earnings scheduleEarnings News Pre-Market Outlook Markets

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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